Nitish Kumar’s decision to step away from the Chief Minister’s chair and move to the Rajya Sabha could open a significant political opportunity for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to reclaim the broader “social justice” space in Bihar — at a time the party finds itself at an electoral low with just 25 seats in the state Assembly.
For nearly two decades, Nitish anchored a coalition that drew large sections of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Mahadalits and women voters under the umbrella of the Janata Dal (United). As his direct role in state politics recedes and the JD(U)’s future organisational strength comes under question, the ensuing churn could open a fresh contest over who represents Bihar’s wider backward caste constituency.
RJD senses opportunities
RJD leaders privately say that Nitish’s exit could create a political opening that did not exist earlier.
“This is an opportunity for us and we are prepared to take it. A lot of leaders and people with socialist and secular background, who were with Nitish ji because of his centrist politics, will now gravitate towards us,” a senior RJD leader said.
The calculation is rooted partly in the numbers from the 2025 Assembly elections in Bihar. The NDA, led by the BJP, secured around 47% votes as against 38% polled by the Opposition RJD-led INDIA bloc.
“With the BJP becoming the dominant power in the NDA in Bihar, it will be difficult for it to replicate this 47% vote share. We have 38%. The JD(U) commands around 12% votes on its own. We expect to grab half of it. Remember, we need just 4–5% extra votes to go over the line,” the RJD leader said.
Within the party, there is also an expectation that politics in Bihar could become more sharply bipolar in the absence of Nitish’s moderating presence.
“Bipolar elections are good for us. We will be in a direct fight with the BJP which will likely now polarise the state. It will only consolidate our vote bank and bring more secular people towards us. Nitish ji used to blunt the communal image of the BJP,” the leader added.
RJD MP Sudhakar Singh framed the moment in ideological terms. “Bihar’s political thinking has remained independent since the time of Lalu Yadav and continued so through the regime of Nitish Kumar. By removing Nitish Kumar from the state, the BJP is trying to stifle Bihar’s independent political voice and run the state from Gujarat. Now that Nitish Kumar is not there, the responsibility of keeping Bihar’s politics independent is upon the RJD and we will fulfil it,” he said.
Backward politics math
The potential opening for the RJD becomes clearer when viewed through the lens of Bihar’s caste demography.
The 2023 caste survey in the state showed that the OBCs and the EBCs together constitute roughly 63% of the state’s population, with EBCs alone accounting for about 36% and OBCs roughly 27%. Yadavs — the RJD’s core caste base — make up around 14–15%.
For years, Nitish’s political project was built around breaking the backward caste bloc that had consolidated under Lalu during the 1990s. By carving out sub-categories such as ati pichhda (EBC) and Mahadalit, expanding targeted welfare schemes and offering symbolic recognition to these groups, he gradually pulled many of them away from the RJD.
If the JD(U) weakens organisationally without Nitish at the helm, a section of these voters could once again become politically fluid. In theory, that gives the RJD a chance to rebuild a broader backward caste coalition.
Within the party, some leaders also draw parallels with developments in Uttar Pradesh. There, the Samajwadi Party (SP) capitalised on the decline of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) by attracting sections of Dalit voters and expanding its outreach to non-Yadav OBCs. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP won 37 seats in the state, ahead of the BJP’s 33.
RJD leaders believe a similar social engineering exercise in Bihar could allow them to consolidate backward castes once again.
Limits of vote transfer
Yet, the opportunity comes with significant constraints. The JD(U)’s vote base may not automatically shift to the RJD simply because Nitish’s role diminishes.
A section of these voters has already been absorbed into the wider NDA ecosystem through welfare schemes and the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Another section remains wary of returning to a political order dominated by the RJD.
The perception of the party as overwhelmingly Yadav-centric remains a key barrier. In the 2025 polls, of the 142 candidates RJD fielded, 75 were OBCs. But of these, 51 were Yadavs. EBCs numbered 11, while 13 tickets went to Kushwahas. Through allies like the VIP and IP Singh’s India Inclusive Party, the RJD pulled some EBC groups, but both remained limited to their sub-castes.
Among communities such as Koeris, Kushwahas, Telis, Nonias and Nishads, concerns persist about whether political power under the RJD umbrella would genuinely be shared.
Challenges for Tejashwi
For Tejashwi Yadav, who now leads the RJD, the question is therefore organisational as much as electoral.
If the RJD hopes to wean away sections of the JD(U)’s social base, it will have to move beyond alliances with smaller caste-based parties and broaden representation within its own ranks. That would mean expanding the share of tickets and leadership positions for non-Yadav OBC and EBC leaders and building a credible second rung of leadership from those communities.
Equally important will be addressing lingering concerns about governance and law and order that continue to shape political perceptions among many non-Yadav voters.
Contested landscape
The coming years could therefore see an intense contest over the backward caste political space in Bihar.
If Tejashwi succeeds in restructuring the RJD and expanding its leadership ranks, the party could capture much of the JD(U)’s social base and re-emerge as the principal pole of “social justice” politics in the state.
But if internal resistance prevents meaningful changes in the party, the outcome may be a fragmented landscape where the BJP, a diminished JD(U), smaller caste-based outfits and an RJD anchored in MY(Muslim-Yadav) base would compete for slices of the electorate.
Nitish’s exit, in that sense, marks not just the end of an era but the beginning of a new struggle over who will define the next phase of backward caste politics in Bihar.