When I arrived at the main gate of the old Parliament building on September 12, 1996, I found a senior MP telling all those who were arriving for the session to “go back right away”. Otherwise, he threatened, “I will make sure that you don’t get a ticket (to contest elections) next time”. What he was hoping to do was to prevent a quorum in the Lok Sabha so that a Bill slated to be introduced in the House that day could not be presented.
It was the day the Women’s Reservation Bill — to provide one-third reservation to women in Parliament and state Assemblies — was first introduced in the Lok Sabha. The senior MP’s attempts that day and, over the years, the efforts of others behind the scenes ensured that the Bill was not passed for 27 years despite successive governments introducing it five times. Each time, the Bill was allowed to lapse.
Regional chieftains from the Hindi heartland — Sharad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Lalu Prasad — turned it into an “OBC issue”, expressing fears that “par kati (short-haired)”, upper caste, urban women would overrun Parliament. They demanded “quota within quota” for OBC women. Facing stiff opposition, Sonia Gandhi’s efforts to get the Bill passed in 2010 came to naught. It passed the Rajya Sabha hurdle but was not even brought to the Lok Sabha, lest it bring down the UPA government.
Few pieces of legislation have had as chequered and troubled a history as the Women’s Reservation Bill. Even though political parties officially paid it lip service, they used “innovative” methods to stymie it. In 2023, the Bill was finally passed, under the Narendra Modi government, near unanimously by both Houses of Parliament. By now, women had emerged as a potent electoral force. However, the law, despite receiving the President’s assent, was not operationalised.
It was not implemented because it had been linked to the delimitation exercise that would redraw constituencies based on population data that emerged from the next Census, set to commence on April 1. Given the strident opposition of the southern states to delimitation, few expected the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, as the Bill was rechristened, to take effect till 2034. For all practical purposes, it had been put on the back burner.
Government’s proposals
Last week, however, the government had a rethink. Suddenly, it decided to bring women’s reservation back to the centre stage. As first reported by The Indian Express, the BJP brass reached out to the Opposition to help amend the law. It offered to convene a special session of Parliament after next month’s Assembly elections to pass the amended Bill, so it can take effect from 2029. These are mere proposals under discussion, but given their import, they merit a look.
The government has suggested several measures: increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 816, with the additional 273 seats (equivalent to one-third of the number proposed) then allocated to women without causing too much heartburn. It has also proposed linking the delimitation exercise to the 2011 Census — not the 2026-27 — which will hasten the Bill’s implementation. A Delimitation Commission is expected to be set up in June and from all accounts, it will be tasked only to “execute” the decisions (but only if and after the proposals get accepted).
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Thirdly, and most critically, there is a proposal not to alter the proportion of seats between the states, even as the number of seats may be increased (to 816). If UP’s seats go up to 120 (from the present 80), the increase in Tamil Nadu will be in the same proportion.
The impending delimitation had threatened to create a north-south divide in the country. The southern states feared that the exercise would favour the northern states, most of which are in the BJP’s control, and go against the southern states that are largely ruled by regional parties and the Congress. Southern leaders felt their region would be “penalised” for its success in promoting education, health, industry, jobs and policies that had allowed it to successfully control the population. Their Lok Sabha seats would then come down for those very reasons, whereas the northern states that had not done so well on population control or on the development front would be rewarded, gaining Lok Sabha seats and national clout.
With its north-south overtones, delimitation was a ticking time bomb, with the BJP’s own ally, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP, expressing reservations. An uproar over delimitation, the BJP felt, could make it difficult for it to expand its footprint in the South.
The question that follows then is this: if the Lok Sabha seats are increased to 816, delimitation takes place based on the 2011 Census, and the ratio of seats between the states is frozen, what will be the logic of going in for another delimitation exercise based on the 2026-27 Census?
What women’s reservation can bring
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It is too early to reach any conclusion, and the issue is highly complex. Much will depend on how the Opposition parties respond. Constitutional amendments are required to make the proposed changes, and they require a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament and ratification by half the states. But these proposals may offer some solace to the Southern leaders.
Besides defusing tension over delimitation, the BJP will naturally like to consolidate its following among women to shore up its electoral fortunes for 2029. These are uncertain times, with the situation in West Asia expected to lead to inflation and economic distress despite the government’s measures. Women are the most aspirational group in the country today and are increasingly emerging as a powerful vote bank that every party assiduously reaches out to.
However, as critics point out, women’s quota may lead men who lose their seats to field their women relatives. But the process has its own dynamics, as we have seen with women’s reservation in panchayats and municipal bodies ensured after the Constitutional amendments that came into effect in 1993. Though men have women as proxies in local governments, it is also a fact that a large number of women have gained confidence and experience over the last three decades to govern local bodies. They are now ready to move into state Assemblies and Parliament, and take the lead there.
Women’s reservation has the potential to unleash transformative energies of a kind we may not have seen before. A critical mass of women in legislatures may change the focus of policy-making, placing more emphasis on education, health, environment, and livelihood, altering the very trajectory of Indian politics.
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(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide.)