(As Tamil Nadu gears up for the Assembly polls, every Thursday, Arun Janardhanan decodes the electoral trends, political signals, and campaign moves shaping the contest.)
The ruling DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu stands at the edge of a crisis it cannot publicly acknowledge. If the Congress insists on power sharing, the forthcoming Assembly election could begin, not with speeches, but with a fracture.
The DMK does not want to even discuss the idea. Privately, the instinctive response is blunt: Forget it.
But politics is rarely conducted on instinct. And this week, as their seat-sharing talks begin, that instinct will be tested. The arithmetic is delicate, and so is the ego.
At issue is whether the Congress has the organisational or electoral wherewithal to demand power sharing in a state where, as recently as the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, it secured just 4.3% of the vote and failed to win a single seat after contesting independently.
And yet, whenever it allied with the DMK, the story changed. Across the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls and 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress’s strike rate improved dramatically.
In 2021, the Congress won 18 of the 25 seats it contested for elections to the 234-member Assembly. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it won 8 of the 9 seats it contested, and improved to 9 from 9 in 2024 – an enviable ratio. But alliances are not built on ratios alone. They are built on loyalty – or at least the appearance of it.
Inside the Tamil Nadu Congress, two factions are now visible. Its larger group under state Congress chief K Selvaperunthagai remains firmly with Chief Minister M K Stalin. Another group believes the party must extract more seats, leverage, and a share in power.
The DMK’s position, according to senior leaders, is clear: They are prepared to increase the Congress tally from 25 to around 28 or even 30 seats. But if power sharing becomes a condition, the door may close.
And that is where the dilemma begins. A senior Congress leader describes what is playing out not as a Tamil Nadu problem, but as reflection of a power play in the AICC in Delhi. Selvaperunthagai is seen affiliated to party president Mallikarjun Kharge. Lok Sabha MP Manickam Tagore is considered to be aligned with AICC general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal. When senior DMK leader Kanimozhi met Rahul Gandhi to kick off the pre-poll talks, alliance decisions were reportedly settled. Only numbers remained.
Yet, the noise has continued. Manickam’s recent interventions – including his aggressive tone while publicly demanding power sharing, and Venugopal’s statement Tuesday in which he used the phrase “clear-cut coalition discussion” – have raised eyebrows. Tagore’s public posturing has triggered criticism even within the Congress ranks. Selvaperunthagai asked if Tagore is “bigger than Kharge and Gandhi”.
Stalin is not Karunanidhi. He does not erupt – he waits. But waiting is not the same as tolerating indefinitely. Top DMK leaders who spoke to The Indian Express said the Congress leadership remains “indifferent” to statements that appear to weaken the alliance, and that Stalin may be forced to consider shutting the Congress out. And that would not be a minor decision.
Congress exit scenario
DMK leaders believe the damage in the event of the Congress’s exit from their alliance may be limited electorally, in terms of seats. But the perception damage would be far larger. Since 2019, the DMK-led alliance has projected stability, built on consecutive electoral successes. A Congress exit would puncture that image.
There is also the Vijay factor. No significant national or state party has aligned with the actor-politician’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) yet. His cadres are restless and time is short. A Congress exit from the DMK-led alliance, and even a symbolic alignment with TVK, would be a major elevation for Vijay, who would perhaps gain more than the Congress itself.
A senior state Congress leader put it bluntly: “Even if the TVK offered 60 seats to the Congress, the result could be a Congress-mukt Tamil Nadu Assembly.” There is also the arithmetic in Kanyakumari, a traditional Congress bastion. In 2021, the DMK alliance swept five of its six Assembly seats. In the event of the Congress-DMK’s break-up, the beneficiaries may end up being the AIADMK-BJP combine, given the BJP’s strength in the region.
There is a deeper concern for the DMK. If the Congress exits, there is a risk of a significant share of the Christian vote – estimated by DMK insiders at up to 50% of that bloc – shifting toward Vijay. That could split anti-BJP votes in a way that indirectly benefits the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
Loyalty question
DMK leaders privately express frustration. They stood with the Congress through national crises. When several national leaders floated prime ministerial ambitions in 2019, not only did the DMK refuse to endorse them, but also publicly proposed Rahul Gandhi’s name for it.
In state polls, several young Congress candidates with limited prior political profiles were fielded and supported through the DMK machinery. The success rate was high. And yet, DMK leaders now ask: Why is that loyalty not returned? “Tagore is setting a personal score. Venugopal is backing their move. But remember that this is Stalin’s election. He will never forget this. He will take it personally,” said a close confidant of Stalin.
Rahul Gandhi’s silence is also a recurring theme in these circles, with some DMK leaders asking “Why are these troubles being allowed by Rahul in the final weeks before the polls?”
However, Rahul loyalists in the state claim that he is not involved in the row.
Historical impulse
Historically, the Congress has always harboured the urge to emerge from the shadow of Dravidian politics – dating back to the era of veteran Congressman G K Moopanar. But timing matters.
Leaving immediately after an election loss is one thing. Triggering a rupture before the polls is another.
A Delhi-based Congress leader cautions that “self-destructive overreach” could become the “death knell” for the party in Tamil Nadu – a result that would serve BJP interests. And yet, the rhetoric continues.
When asked about power sharing, Stalin publicly clarified there is none. No formal demand has been placed by Tamil Nadu Congress, Kharge, or Rahul Gandhi. Kanimozhi’s meeting with Rahul reportedly included only discussions on seat numbers, not ministerial posts. So why the noise?
Edge of decision
On February 22, a five-member Congress committee is scheduled to meet DMK leaders. There is reportedly a standing instruction not to discuss alliance matters in public. Venugopal has said individual remarks against alliance are their own, not the party’s.
And yet, the statements persist. If the Congress pushes for power sharing, the DMK’s reaction would be decisive. They may concede on seat sharing, offering the Congress up to 30. But on executive power, the line appears firm.
The irony is that Vijay, for now, remains just a piece on this larger chessboard. Congress leaders hope he will not align with the BJP. DMK fears elevating him inadvertently. But the real question is simpler. Will the Congress remain loyal to Stalin and the DMK, which continued backing the party even as other key INDIA bloc allies appeared to abandon it? Or will it test the limits of arithmetic in a state where memory – and perception – can be unforgiving?
In Tamil Nadu, alliances rarely collapse quietly. They implode, and someone else reaps the benefits. This week may decide who.