(As Kerala gears up for the Assembly polls, every week, Shaju Philip decodes the electoral trends, political signals, and campaign moves shaping the contest.)
The battlelines for the coming elections to Kerala’s 140-member Assembly have been drawn with the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) embarking upon state-wide political tours next week.
While CPI(M) state secretary M V Govindan will lead one of the three regional jathas, or marches, to showcase the incumbent government’s report card, the Congress’s Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly V D Satheesan will tour the state to “debunk” the ruling alliance’s claims.
Left’s strengths
The biggest asset of the CPI(M), which is looking to win its third consecutive term, is its decade in power. The Left will pitch its government’s body of work, including infrastructure development and welfare measures, as proof of the changes it has heralded in Kerala. Several key infrastructure projects, which were either launched or resumed in 2016 when the Left came to power, are in the final stages of completion. For instance, the national highway development and the GAIL gas pipeline projects, once suspended, were revived after the LDF came to power.
But despite being in power for the two consecutive terms, the LDF has been largely insulated from major, protracted scandals, which is a striking departure from the days of the Congress-led UDF government. Though the Left has faced some issues – from recent allegations of gold theft at the Sabarimala temple to the money laundering probe against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter Veena dating back to 2023 – the larger concern for the Left could be voter fatigue after a decade in power, which could quietly dent its chances down to the grassroots level.
On the political front, however, the CPI(M) will have to contend with the growing impression that the party has abandoned its steadfastness in fighting the BJP, a factor that had helped it corner the secular and minority vote banks. The image of Vijayan as the most assertive leader in taking on the BJP has steadily eroded over the past 10 years, with the CPI(M)-BJP political battle in Kerala now reduced to occasional bouts of discord between government and the governor, particularly over assenting to Bill passed by the legislature.
Even in the face of accusations of softening its approach towards the Sangh Parivar and other Hindu right-wing elements – including Vijayan’s “proximity” to prominent Hindu Ezhava community leader Vellappally Natesan, which has rankled sections of the Left particularly over his controversial remarks on Muslims – many CPI(M) leaders have taken to sharp, anti-Muslim rhetoric. The prevailing scenario shows that the CPM’s “anti-Muslim stance”, adopted to regain its Hindu vote bank, has resulted in the party alienating the numerically significant minority community.
The Opposition strategy
For the Congress-led UDF, which has been in the Opposition for a decade, this election is nothing short of a fight for survival. Defeat will not only spell disaster for the Congress, but also threaten the disintegration of the UDF coalition. Despite having several CM aspirants, the party faces the absence of a leader with Vijayan’s stature and command.
While the Congress hopes to ride to victory on a wave of anti-incumbency against the LDF, it will face competition from the BJP on this front. Whether the Congress can consolidate the bulk of anti-government votes will be a decisive factor in shaping its electoral prospects. If the Sabarimala gold theft scandal is set aside, the Congress has so far failed to raise a pan-Kerala issue capable of mobilising people against the government during the days leading to the election. The party also does not have leaders capable of social engineering, to maintain cordial relationships across all communities.
A major political challenge looming over the UDF is the lingering perception its constituent Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) would “set the agenda from the backseat” if the alliance comes to power. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the anxiety among Hindu-Christian communities over the IUML’s growing influence had contributed to the UDF’s defeat. CPI(M) leaders and Ezhava leader Natesan recently attacked the UDF, recalling its days in power when the IUML was seen as calling the shots in the government. The recent controversial remark by IUML leader K M Shaji, who said his party would wrest power in the Assembly elections to ensure returns for the Muslim community, has helped the CPI(M) to build its narrative against the UDF.
BJP strategy
The BJP, buoyed by its historic first-ever victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation in December, has set high expectations for itself, evident in its campaign slogan “Viksit Kerala, Surakshit Kerala, Vishwasa Samrakshanam (developed Kerala, safe Kerala, protection of faith)”. The party has identified about a dozen constituencies, including four across Thiruvananthapuram city and nearby areas, on which to focus its efforts.
In particular, the BJP has been leading the agitation against the CPI(M) over the alleged Sabarimala gold theft scandal. After photographs surfaced showing the alleged perpetrators with Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and other party MPs, the BJP has found a way to target the Congress too. While the issue was widely debated during the recent local body elections, it remains to be seen whether the scandal will resonate with the electorate again. The BJP also faces the challenge of ensuring that the anti-Left sentiment of the Hindu faithful over the Sabarimala theft scandal does not drift away from it and towards the Congress.