(As Kerala gears up for the Assembly polls, every week, Shaju Philip decodes the electoral trends, political signals, and campaign moves shaping the contest.)
The coming Kerala Assembly elections will answer an important question. After a decade at the helm of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, will Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan continue as the face of the party’s electoral politics for another innings, or will he pass on the baton to the new generation?
So far, there is no indication that he would opt out of the electoral fray. The party leadership has made it clear that Vijayan will lead the CPI(M) and the Left in the electoral battle. From media advertisements to billboards, the state’s promotional campaigns showcasing the Left government’s achievements carry only Vijayan’s image.
Though neither the CPI(M) nor Vijayan has explicitly stated that he will contest again, not contesting the election makes little political sense. A sudden exit by Vijayan — seen as the chief architect of a changing Kerala — from the electoral arena could hand the Opposition a potent weapon and he could be dubbed a captain abandoning his sinking ship.
However, the question about how long Vijayan will continue at the helm continues to persist as the CPI(M) looks to inject fresh blood into the leadership. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the party barred legislators who had completed two consecutive terms from contesting. The unprecedented move allowed the party to field younger and new faces and it paid off. The Left retained power by winning 99 of the 140 seats, breaking the cycle of Kerala’s voters changing their governments every five years.
Last month, the party leadership said the two-term condition was not static and would be reviewed. The question now is whether it will be scrapped altogether or relaxed for a select few who have completed two back-to-back terms. If the party opts for the latter, the key question is who, besides Vijayan, will be exempted from the restriction.
Even as the CPI(M) maintains that it does not project a chief ministerial candidate during elections, Vijayan contesting again will signal that he will return as CM if the Left wins. So far, the party has not projected any successor.
Options on CPI(M)’s table
One option could be CPI(M) Central Committee member and former state Health Minister K K Shailaja, the party’s most popular woman leader in the state. In the three regional LDF political jathas underway as a precursor to the campaign, Shailaja is a key figure in the central Kerala leg. Having completed two consecutive terms as MLA, many in the Left believe fielding Shailaja again would allow the party to keep alive the idea of a woman CM. Her exclusion from the Cabinet in the second Vijayan government in 2021 had triggered brief political chatter when the CPI(M) picked a crop of new faces as ministers.
All this talk will be moot, however, if the CPI(M) loses the elections. It will then have to be seen if Vijayan, who will turn 81 this May, assumes the position of Leader of the Opposition or hands over the leadership to another party colleague, which will see the rise of another star in the party. On this matter too, the ball will be in Vijayan’s court.
Vijayan, who served as the CPI(M)’s state secretary from 1998 to 2015, returned to electoral politics in 2016. While he headed the party, the late V S Achuthanandan was its electoral face. Since 2016, both the party and the government have been under Vijayan’s firm control. Even after two consecutive terms in power, he remains the party’s preferred leader in the absence of any tangible dissent within the party. That is viewed as his greatest strength.
If Achuthanandan played to the gallery by pursuing scandals and social evils, Vijayan has focused on schemes and projects aimed at improving quality of life. His investment-driven, market-aligned development model has drawn criticism from the Congress and sections of the intelligentsia who call it a rightward deviation. The CPI(M) hopes the charge will instead sharpen the development debate and resonate with the state’s expanding middle class.
If Vijayan manages to secure another term for the CPI(M), his position within the party will only grow stronger and more unassailable. His son-in-law, P A Muhammed Riyas, who handles the key portfolios of Public Works and Tourism, is set to contest from the party stronghold of Beypore in Kozhikode for a second term. As before, Vijayan is likely to have the final word on Riyas’s role after the elections.