Kerala is set for perhaps the most intense Assembly poll battle this time, especially after the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) routed the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the local body elections held in December last year.
Though a high-voltage campaign has already got underway as the Left looks to retain its last bastion, it was the Congress-led front which had dominated the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning 18 of the state’s 20 parliamentary seats, leaving just 1 each to the CPI(M) and the BJP.
In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, too, the LDF had lost heavily to the UDF, but still managed to recover and come to power in the 2016 and 2021 Assembly polls.
Besides the local body polls, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are the most recent test faced by the parties in Kerala, which is a pointer to the way the political winds may blow in the upcoming Assembly polls.
The LDF, which had returned to power in 2021 by winning 99 of the state’s 140 Assembly seats, is seeking a third consecutive term in Kerala. But ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls, going by the recent Lok Sabha results, the Left is in arguably its weakest position since 1977, the last time it failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the state.
An Assembly segment level analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls puts the UDF as the leading alliance in 111 segments, well ahead of the LDF at 18 and the BJP at 11. The majority mark in the state Assembly is 71 seats. At 84, the Congress led in the most Assembly segments, followed by allies IUML at 14, Revolutionary Socialists Party (RSP) at 7, and Kerala Congress at 6. On the LDF front, the CPI(M) managed to lead in just 14 Assembly seats, followed by the CPI at 3 and the Kerala Congress (Moopanar) at 1. The BJP led in 11 Assembly seats.
Assembly segment level results of 2024 Lok Sabha polls
A comparison of vote shares in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls puts the UDF’s 45.2% well ahead of the LDF’s 33.6%, with the Congress alone at 35.1% and trailed by the CPI(M) at 25.8%. An analysis of segment-specific vote shares and leading margins indicates the UDF’s commanding position as it heads into the Assembly polls.
In a total 45 Assembly segments, the leading party in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls managed to secure more than 50% of the vote share – all by constituents of the UDF. The Congress alone led in 29 such segments, IUML in 11, RSP in 4 and Kerala Congress in 1. Even in the 18 segments led by the LDF parties, the highest vote share topped out at just 47.6%.
In as many as 50 Assembly segments, the leading party in 2024 was decided by a margin under 10,000 votes. Of these low-margin seats, the Congress and its allies led in 30 segments. However, in a concerning trend for the LDF, the CPI(M) and its allies led 16 segments of its total 18 segments by margins under 10,000 votes. The BJP, meanwhile, saw low margins in 4 segments where it led in 2024.
Between the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, at the Assembly segment level, the Congress and its allies did not lose any ground. However, the Left alliance went backwards, ceding leads in 76 Assembly segments in the 2024 polls that it had won in the 2021 elections – the Congress and its allies were able to “flip” 65 segments and the BJP 11.
With the UDF in a strong position and the BJP’s vote shares consistently growing over the past decade, the LDF has its task cut out as it makes a renewed bid to retain power in the state.