If the high-stakes battle for four seats in the March 16 Rajya Sabha polls in Odisha is anything to go by, the political equations appear to have shifted in the state, with the Opposition Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Congress joining hands for a “common candidate”.
In an unprecedented move, the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD that ruled the state for 24 years – first in alliance with the BJP for nine years and later on its own – entered into an agreement with the Congress to secure the fourth seat for which no party has enough MLAs. Given the BJD’s long-running dominance in the state before it lost power to the BJP in the 2024 polls, this is the first instance of the party coordinating with the Congress in the Rajya Sabha elections.
As each winning candidate needs the votes of at least 30 MLAs to win a Rajya Sabha seat – with the state Assembly having 147 members – no party has enough MLAs to get the fourth seat on its own. The BJP, which has 79 MLAs, would easily bag two Rajya Sabha seats that are falling vacant.
While the BJD’s 48 MLAs are enough to secure one seat, it needs the support of the Congress’s 14 MLAs for the fourth seat, prompting Patnaik to announce a “common candidate” after having discussed the issue with the Congress high command and its state unit chief Bhakta Charan Das.
“This could be the reason the Congress immediately extended its support to Patnaik moments after he named noted urologist Dr Datteswar Hota as the common candidate for the Upper House polls. The Odisha Congress chief also met Patnaik before Hota was named,” said a senior BJD leader.
Patnaik’s decision to field a candidate with the Congress’s backing carries political significance, considering his long-held “equidistant policy” since the party broke ties with the BJP in 2009, to keep both the BJP and Congress at arm’s length.
Despite Patnaik’s “equidistant” stance, the BJD has had backed the Narendra Modi government on several key occasions over the past decade, including during the Presidential elections in 2017 and 2022 and to ensure the passage key legislation like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the CEC and Other Election Commissioners Act, among others.
Having faced heat within the BJD for “cosying up” to the BJP, which a party section blames for its defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, some party insiders say the Rajya Sabha deal with the Congress may be motivated by Patnaik’s intention to directly take on the BJP.
But the race for the fourth seat has become even more competitive with prominent hotelier and former Union minister Dilip Ray throwing his hat into the ring with the BJP’s support, making it five candidates for four vacant seats. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who visited Bhubaneswar Friday, also held a closed-door meeting with party leaders, including Ray, at the BJP headquarters. Sources said Shah discussed the party’s strategy to secure three of the four vacant seats.
For some observers, the optics during the nomination process, when Patnaik and the Odisha Congress chief appeared together, accompanied by senior leaders from both parties, are a clear sign of a “developing political alignment that could have implications beyond the Rajya Sabha polls”. Bhakta Charan Das’s praise for Patnaik also fuelled the speculation in this regard.
“After several years, the like-minded parties in Odisha – BJD, Congress and Left parties – came to a political decision for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat. The All India Congress Committee accepted the proposal of beloved leader Naveen babu. We decided the name of the common candidate, who is a renowned personality, in the larger interest of the state. Naveen babu clearly stated that it’s the time for the like-minded secular and socialist parties to come together and it’s a historic moment in Odisha politics,” Das said.
Ahead of the nomination deadline on March 5, Patnaik and the Odisha Congress leaders met all MLAs of both parties to project a united front.
Patnaik, however, has kept everyone guessing on the potential future of the BJD-Congress cooperation. To queries whether a new political alliance is being shaped in Odisha, he said, “Time always tells future history.”
Amid the growing buzz now about the BJD leaning towards the INDIA bloc, the national-level Opposition alliance, party leaders said it was premature to make such predictions.
Patnaik’s political secretary, Santrupt Misra, who is also the party’s official nominee for the Rajya Sabha polls, said the two parties have entered into an “agreement for a limited time” to send a suitable candidate from the state to the Upper House.
“The BJD was formed in Odisha in 1997, after the death of Biju Patnaik, as a force against the Congress government. The party was known as an anti-Congress party. Besides, the BJD is still the number one party in Odisha in terms of overall vote share. The next general election is three years from now. So it would be too early to make any such predictions,” said a veteran BJD leader.
Senior BJD leader Prasanna Acharya said one election could not determine the future course of politics. “Our leader has already said that the future will tell everything. So let us wait and watch,” Acharya said.