(Each week, the National Political Bureau of The Indian Express examines a political party and a leader, tracking their moves and explaining why they matter.)
Sharad Pawar set the cat among the pigeons on Saturday morning when he said that the process of reunification of the NCP factions – disrupted by his nephew and NCP president Ajit Pawar’s untimely demise – will be discontinued for now and that he has no knowledge about Ajit’s wife Sunetra Pawar being elevated to succeed him as the Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister.
The Maratha strongman and NCP(SP) chief has long held a reputation of being astute and ambitious. He is equally unpredictable. His remarks have multiple political messages embedded in it, also signalling something which is being talked about in political circles in hushed tones – the “invisible hand” of the BJP in the NCP affairs.
In his long career spanning several decades, Pawar, 85, has been both part of and at the receiving end of political machinations and intrigues. Right from 1978, when he brought down the Vasantdada Patil-led Maharashtra government and installed himself as the chief minister of the new dispensation, to returning to the Congress eight years later to become the CM for the second term, to walking out of the Congress to float the NCP in 1999 after raising a banner of revolt against Sonia Gandhi – Pawar has seen and done it all.
But the tight corner that he has now found himself in is without parallel. As Pawar himself disclosed Saturday, the process of reunification of the NCP factions was underway and the two sides were to announce their merger on February 12. It was said that the reunified NCP would be part of the BJP-led NDA. While Ajit would be the face of the party in Maharashtra, Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule could have found accommodation in the Union ministry. Power, after all, is an elixir for leaders.
Ajit’s sudden demise has however altered the script for the NCP factions.
Earlier this week, the Pawar family’s patriarch was quick to rule out any conspiracy in Ajit’s death in a plane crash near Baramati. It was a pure accident, Pawar said. His move underlined a clear message – that his is still the last word in the Pawar clan. And, on the next day, he reached Nirvagaj village in Baramati to address the complaints of local villagers about contaminated water in the Nira river. His visit was seen by many as a signal that he was getting back to action.
Several leaders in the Opposition and NCP camps see an “invisible hand” in the push to make Sunetra the Deputy CM. While Pawar has said that the merger process would be on pause, NCP leaders say it may still happen. But Sunetra has to first take charge decisively so that the Pawar faction does not get an upper hand after reunification. They hold that the merger, if it happens, would not be on Pawar’s terms.
Pawar’s fresh remarks are being seen in this light. Even after Ajit’s departure, his faction, with the tacit blessings of the BJP, wants to have an edge in the united NCP as and when the merger takes place, sources said. For that Sunetra will have to take the reins of her organisation before the unity talks resume. The NCP cannot afford its leaders and MLAs to jump ship in the absence of Ajit.
Ajit would have also ensured that the unified NCP remains firmly in the BJP-led NDA. This would have added eight more Lok Sabha MPs to the NDA’s kitty. The NCP (SP), a constituent of the Opposition INDIA bloc, has eight Lok Sabha MPs, while the NCP has just one.
The leaders of the NCP and the BJP want to ensure that Sunetra is firmly in the saddle before the merger takes place so that there is no ambiguity on the party’s continuance in the NDA, sources said. In the Assembly, the NCP is a bigger force with 41 MLAs while the NCP(SP) has only 10.
Pawar is aware of this scenario. So what are the options before him now? It is said that Parth Pawar, Sunetra’s son, would take her Rajya Sabha seat which she will vacate. Sunetra is expected to contest from the Baramati Assembly seat that Ajit represented. She could also be anointed as her party’s national president.
Sharad Pawar, it seems, is waiting for the developments in the NCP to unfold in the coming days. He is ready to play the long game. It suits the NCP too – and, significantly, a section of its senior leaders.
The parties in the INDIA alliance have adopted a “wait and watch” stance. The merger of the NCP factions may still happen, but it would be interesting to see who will get the helm of the unified party. Pawar, after all, is a veteran of many political battles.