4 min readNew DelhiMar 22, 2026 12:28 PM IST
First published on: Mar 22, 2026 at 12:28 PM IST
As the campaign gets underway in West Bengal ahead of next month’s Assembly polls, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Opposition BJP engaged in a series of tussles, most prominently over the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.
Since the last Assembly elections in 2021, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are the most recent electoral test faced by parties in Bengal. They provide an image of the TMC’s dominance while the BJP, despite emerging as the primary Opposition force five years ago and growing its footprint across the state, faces organisational challenges and an uphill task as it mounts yet another attempt to dislodge the Mamata Banerjee-led party from power.
In every Assembly poll since the TMC first came to power in 2011, the party has managed to increase its seat tally: from 184 in 2011 to 215 in 2021, still well above the 148-seat majority mark in the 294-member House. Though the TMC received a jolt in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP won 18 seats compared to the TMC’s 22 out of 42, the ruling party was able to recover to 29 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 polls against the BJP’s 12. But the TMC still fell short of its record 2014 Lok Sabha tally of 34 seats.
An analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls at the Assembly segment level shows that the TMC is still in a strong position, though not as dominant as its 2021 Assembly poll performance. In 2024, the TMC secured leads in 192 Assembly segments, more than twice the BJP’s leads at 90. The Congress led in 11 segments, and the CPI(M) in 1. These figures comfortably put the TMC above the majority mark, even with the BJP gaining ground.
Lok Sabha 2024 results at Assembly segment level in West Bengal
The vote share comparison is less stark. The TMC managed 45.8% against the BJP’s 38.7%. But a cause of concern for the TMC may be the absence of any cohesive Opposition fronts, with the Congress-Left alliance falling through for this year’s Assembly elections and several Muslim leaders, including former TMC MLA Humayun Kabir, floating new parties, all of which could lead to a division of crucial minority votes.
The TMC, however, will be buoyed by the extent of its dominant showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. At the Assembly segment level, the TMC led in 70 with a vote share greater than 50%, while the BJP similarly led in 36 segments, and the Congress in just 1.
In the 89 Assembly segments that were closely contested in 2024 – where the leading party was decided by a margin under 10,000 votes – the TMC led in 50 segments, followed by the BJP in 34, the Congress in 4. and the CPI(M) in 1. Both the TMC and the BJP will be looking to tilt the scales in their favour across the low-margin Assembly segments.
Between the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, 55 Assembly segments changed hands. In 2024, while the TMC lost ground in 38 Assembly segments it had won in 2021 – mostly losing out to the BJP – the Opposition party in the state ceded control in 15 segments that it had won in 2021.
Even with the BJP consistently growing its presence in Bengal, enough to displace the Left and Congress as the principal Opposition, going by the 2024 results, the ruling TMC remains in a strong position ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls.