The sudden exit of Nitish Kumar from Bihar politics has caught many in the Janata Dal (United) by surprise, as they were of the view that his son Nishant Kumar would be sent to the Rajya Sabha and gradually step into his father’s shoes. The script changed on Wednesday afternoon, with a strong buzz that instead of his son, the CM would move to the Rajya Sabha.
There are several implications of this, bringing several uncertainties to Bihar politics. Voices in the state’s power corridors say that the first change is that the BJP, which will now have its own CM, formally becomes the dominant partner of the NDA. The challenge for the JD(U) is to find a replacement for Kumar. Some feel that Nishant’s formal entry has been delayed and that he is a simple man, lacking his father’s political acumen.
NDA’s immediate task
In terms of optics, with Kumar in Delhi, Bihar politics will appear somewhat bipolar: the BJP versus the RJD. The JD(U) will have to prove that it can retain the social base carved out by Kumar comprising the Kurmis and a clutch of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and the proof will come only in the next elections. Till then, a sense of bipolarity is expected, though the RJD’s poor performance last time suggests that the BJP may have the edge, to begin with.
The perception of bipolarity also means that Nitish Kumar’s social base, particularly the EBCs, will appear to be more open for grabs for all three parties, till it becomes clear which side they tilt.
The BJP is likely to replace Kumar with a Kurmi, Kushwaha or an EBC, something that makes observers suggest that Samrat Choudhary, a Kushwaha, is the likely frontrunner for the CM’s post, barring any surprise that the BJP may throw. A senior BJP leader said the JD(U) was likely to have “significant say” on the choice of the new CM. “From Samrat Choudhary to Vijay Kumar Sinha, there are several top contenders for the post; things will become clearer by the end of the day,” the leader said, referring to Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s visit to the state.
The BJP’s challenge as the dominant NDA partner now will be to acquire Nitish’s vote base. The previous equation in the state that saw Kumar being a decisive factor in government formation, even if his JD(U) was not the dominant force, may now be disrupted in the future.
What Nitish meant for Bihar
What marked Nitish Kumar out from other leaders was the fact that he held on to power irrespective of whether his party was the biggest in the state or not. In 2005, when he first became CM for a full term, the RJD had 75 seats, the JD(U) 55, and the BJP 37. In 2010, the JD(U) had 115 seats, the BJP 91, and the RJD 22. In 2015, when Kumar contested the polls in alliance with the RJD, the RJD had 80 seats, the JD(U) 71, and the BJP 53 seats. In 2020, when Kumar was again in the NDA, the RJD won 75 seats, the BJP 74, and JD(U) 43. In 2025, the BJP had 89 seats, the JD(U) 85, and the RJD 25.
Kumar has been the fulcrum of Bihar politics since he became CM for the second time in 2005, after a seven-day stint from March 3 to 10, 2000. The only brief period when he hasn’t been CM since November 24, 2005, was the 278-day stint of Jitan Ram Manjhi as CM in 2014-15.
Kumar held the key to power in the state and the alliance he joined always won the state elections. Deftly moving from one alliance to the other that saw five flip-flops in the last 11 years — he was given the moniker Paltu Ram — Kumar had an almost unbroken stint as CM for 20 years.
His appeal to Bihar had two sides to it. Internally, he emerged as the champion of the EBCs and externally, at least his first two terms offered an image change to Bihar, with people outside the state widely perceiving him as someone who reversed what was called the RJD’s “jungle raj” and improved the state’s infrastructure.
Perfecting Bihar’s caste math
Kumar was aware that his caste, Kurmis, who make up 2.8% of the population, is numerically smaller than the Yadavs, the RJD’s core base who constitute about 14% of the population. He therefore decided to carve his fresh constituencies among the EBCs, women, and Mahadalits (Dalits except Paswans, though he eventually included Paswans in the category, thus rendering it defunct).
Since 2006, Nitish introduced several measures to consolidate his influence among EBCs. In 2006, his Cabinet approved 20% reservation for EBCs in district boards, panchayat samitis, and gram panchayats. Four years later, he announced a new entrepreneurship scheme wherein eligible members received state assistance of Rs 10 lakh to set up small businesses.
Nitish’s bid to reach out to the EBCs was seen as a response to ally-turned-rival Lalu Prasad’s Muslim-Yadav support base that had helped the RJD stay in power from 1990 to 2005. Lalu’s rise marked the decline of upper-caste dominance in the state, as he rode the Mandal wave that promised social justice for the OBCs. However, a perception gradually grew that Lalu’s power meant power primarily for Yadavs, a dominant OBC group, and Ashraf Muslims. His tenure as the CM had a catalytic effect. It made all backward communities more aspirational, although it also made the EBCs realise that they were not the real beneficiaries of the RJD regime.
The 2023 Bihar caste survey, which Kumar himself released, further highlighted the electoral significance of the EBCs, showing them to be just above Dalits in terms of landholding and wealth. After the publication of the survey, Nitish decided to hike the quota for the SCs, STs, OBCs and EBCs in the state from 50% to 65%, but the Patna High Court later struck it down.
In cultivating the EBCs, Kumar achieved another thing. While the EBCs across north and central India shifted significantly to the BJP under Narendra Modi — with the exception of UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls — Kumar still held the key to them in Bihar.
JD(U) working president Sanjay Jha told The Indian Express during the Bihar Assembly elections last year that Kumar had also carved out a distinctive political constituency among women through schemes such as Jeevika Didis, providing bicycles to girl students, and 50% women’s reservation in panchayats.
Bihar’s face
Outside Bihar, Kumar has remained its face for two decades now. Carving out a “Vikas Purush (development man)” image for his first 10 years as CM, his terms as CM have, to a great extent, reversed the negative stereotypes surrounding Bihar and removed some of the pejorative stereotypes that had emerged because of the perceived lawlessness of Lalu’s years. He thus represented Bihar across India, punching far above his electoral weight. The slogan “Bihar Mein Bahaar Hain, Nitish-e Kumar Hai (There is spring in Bihar, it still has Nitish Kumar)” illustrated this.
Kumar also had some other strengths, which have maintained his brand despite his U-turns. He has not been accused of any major corruption charge, which sets him apart from the family of Lalu Prasad that has battled multiple charges. And he is the only regional politician in the country who, for a long time, did not promote his son Nishant Kumar in politics. Now that Nishant is being promoted, many wonder whether it’s too late.
For the BJP, Kumar has been an ideological asset, too, in an underrated manner. An idea that the Congress had pushed since the 1990s was that the battle for ideological hegemony in India was between a secular vision that the Congress stood for and the “communal”, or Hindutva vision, of the BJP.
Rahul Gandhi has been repeating this in recent years, too. However, Kumar took the wind out of the sails of this idea by seamlessly shifting from the NDA to the Opposition and back. If Kumar could, at will, cross over from one side to another and was eagerly brought on board by both sides, what was the “secular-communal” dichotomy in politics about?
Kumar’s last Assembly campaign saw massive support from voters. The Indian Express noticed immense goodwill for him, as if people wanted to bid him farewell with a vote of gratitude. His absence potentially opens up Bihar politics in more ways than one.
— With inputs from Jatin Anand