In an indication of the entrenched nature of electoral politics in Kerala, an analysis of the last three Assembly elections shows that as many as 87 of the state’s 140 seats have been won consecutively by the same party since 2011.
While the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF)’s CPI(M) and CPI have each held 39 and 12 seats respectively across the last three Assembly polls, the Opposition Congress has similarly held 12 seats and its ally IUML has held 14 seats. However, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) recording a comeback in the recent local body elections, Kerala’s political landscape may be headed for a significant shake-up.
In the remaining 10 seats that have been held by the same party since 2011, factions of the Kerala Congress, the Maharashtra-based undivided Nationalist Congress Party and the Karnataka-based Janata Dal (Secular) were the other consistent winners.
In 2011, the UDF had come to power after edging out the LDF. But the Left was able to return to power in 2016 and further extend its lead over the UDF in 2021. All these polls were held after the nation-wide 2008 delimitation exercise, which redrew and renamed Assembly constituencies within states.
Regional breakdown
Mapping out the regional spread of the parties shows that the CPI(M)’s dominance has been concentrated in north Kerala, particularly in the Kannur, Kozhikode and Palakkad districts. The CPI has been a formidable force in central and south Kerala, around the Kollam, Thrissur and Alappuzha districts. Together, the CPI(M) and CPI have held considerable influence across the state over the past 15 years.
Among the Left’s allies, the Kerala Congress (Mani)’s three dominant seats are all in central Kerala while the erstwhile undivided NCP won its seats in the Kozhikode and Alappuzha districts. The Left was also able to rely on two veteran Independents, advocate-activist P T A Rahim and academic K T Jaleel to win their seats in three consecutive polls.
On the Opposition front, while the Congress’s consecutive wins came in central Kerala, largely in Ernakulam and Kottayam districts, the IUML was dominant in the Muslim-majority Malappuram district. The Congress’s strong seats are not as clustered as other Kerala parties, coming in some urban areas and, in some cases, centred on veteran leaders’ strongholds like late Oomen Chandy’s Puthuppally and Ramesh Chennithala’s Haripad.
Vote shares
Across the 87 seats won consecutively by the same party since 2011, there are just six seats where the leading party saw its vote share rise in each ensuing election – 5 won by the CPI(M) and 1 by the CPI. Among them is Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s Dharmadam seat.
There are also 14 seats where the winning party has maintained its vote share above 50% – 8 won by the CPI(M), 4 by the IUML, and 1 each by the CPI and Congress.
However, 23 seats saw vote shares decline consistently – 10 of these were won by the CPI(M), 5 by the Congress, 4 by the IUML and 3 by the CPI.
A comparison of vote shares in 2011 and 2021 shows that just 27 of the 87 seats won consecutively by the same party saw vote shares increase. The Left had the most such seats – the CPI(M) won in 17, CPI in 4, and the Congress and IUML in 2 each. But in 60 seats, the vote shares fell between 2011 and 2021 – the CPI(M) had won 22 of these, followed by the IUML at 12, Congress at 10 and CPI at 8.
But a comparison of vote shares in the 2016 and 2021 polls – both won by the LDF – shows that the Left lost ground in 19 seats despite continuing to win them, while the Congress and IUML’s vote shares declined in 8 and 4 seats, respectively. The Left will, however, be banking on 32 seats where its vote share rose between 2016 and 2021; the Congress has only 4 such seats while the IUML has 9 such seats. In one seat, the IUML’s vote share was unchanged from 2016 to 2021.
Seats retained
Between the 2016 and 2021 Assembly polls, there were 113 seats won by the same party consecutively. While the Left and its allies were able to retain 75 of these seats, the Congress and its partners managed the same in 32 seats.
If voter fatigue and “anti-incumbency” emerge as key factors in the 2026 elections, it may have an impact on several Left citadels. But as the BJP begins to gain ground in the state and several contests turn into three-cornered fights, it remains to be seen which party would benefit from a division of votes. As things stand, the UDF is poised to put up a formidable fight, especially given its strong showing in the local body polls held in December.
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