In Puducherry, a Union Territory smaller than the Chennai Municipal Corporation where elections are often decided by personal equations as much as party allegiances, the April 9 Assembly elections have slipped into a familiar but precarious script: alliances negotiated late, candidates announced before agreements, and partners quietly undercutting one another.
With just under two weeks to go before polling, the DMK-Congress alliance, once projected as a formidable challenger to the ruling NDA, is showing visible signs of strain, not merely over seat-sharing but also something more fundamental: who will lead, and who will eventually govern.
The numbers tell part of the story. After days of negotiations, the alliance arrived at a formula on Tuesday: 16 seats for the Congress and 14 for the DMK, with one seat within the DMK quota earmarked for Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). But even as the agreement was announced, its foundations were already shifting. The Congress went on to file nominations in 22 constituencies and the VCK has announced its intention to contest three seats.
At least five Congress candidates have now refused to withdraw, even after the national leadership intervened. “Even Mallikarjun Kharge intervened, but they refused to withdraw,” said a senior Congress leader.
The deadline to withdraw nominations, March 26, has come and gone, with the stage set for “friendly fights” in at least five constituencies: Nellithope, Kalapattu, Muthialpet, Thattanchavadi and Ozhukarai.
The unease in the alliance is rooted in arithmetic. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the DMK contested 13 seats and won six, while the Congress contested 15 and won just two. In the current cycle, internal assessments suggest that of the DMK’s 14 seats (including one for VCK), at least 11 are considered “winnable”. Of the 16 seats allocated to the Congress, only five to six are seen as “competitive”. In a 30-member Assembly where 16 seats are needed to form the government, these numbers matter.
Both the DMK and the Congress camps suggest a scenario in which the alliance could win, perhaps even comfortably, with projections of up to 18 or 19 seats, but with the DMK emerging as the dominant partner. For the Congress that has historically led the alliance in Puducherry and ruled the Union Territory, that outcome carries an uncomfortable implication: the CM’s post may no longer be its own.
Congress resistance
Congress leaders, while publicly holding to a “time-tested” formula under which the party leads in Puducherry, have signalled resistance to such a shift. The decision by a section of the leadership to expand nominations beyond the agreed 16 seats to 22 is seen by the DMK as a move to retain leverage, even at the cost of unity. The result is a peculiar situation: alliance partners now risk splitting the votes that could undercut their combined strength.
Former Congress CM V Narayanasamy told The Indian Express that the alliance remains intact. “Those five candidates who refused to withdraw nominations will face action. The party leadership will issue a strong statement soon,” he said.
The confusion extends beyond the Opposition bloc. Across the aisle, the NDA has settled its seat-sharing — 16 for the All India N R Congress (AINRC), 10 for the BJP, and two each for the AIADMK and the Latchiya Jananayaga Katchi (LJK), a new entrant led by lottery baron Santiago Martin’s son Jose Charles Martin. But even there, the entry of new players and the local rivalries have added layers of complexity.
How campaign is shaping up
If alliances are being tested by arithmetic, the campaign itself is being shaped by something more elemental: money. In constituencies with an average of 30,000 voters — of whom roughly 20,000 to 24,000 are expected to vote — candidates describe election spending in the range of Rs 2 crore to Rs 5 crore.
Multiple sources across parties point to widespread inducements, with payments ranging from Rs 5,000 to Rs 10,000 per vote. Household appliances – mixies, grinders and refrigerators are offered for families with many members – are part of the informal campaign economy.
In a place this small, the scale of spending can feel disproportionate. It is, perhaps, the paradox of Puducherry politics: a territory compact enough for leaders to know voters by name, MLAs and ministers and the key Opposition faces are sometimes even blood relatives, yet expansive enough for alliances to unravel in public view.
The presence of smaller and emerging players adds to the uncertainty. The LJK, barely a year old as a social, charitable organisation and only months into its transformation into a political party, has already inserted itself into the NDA and is contesting two seats. Its strategy, according to political observers, appears to extend beyond immediate electoral gains.
Attempts by a section of local Congress leaders to explore alternatives, including a possible tie-up with actor Vijay’s TVK, did not materialise. The Congress remains with the DMK, even as its actions complicate it.
In Puducherry, elections are rarely linear. Alliances are built late, tested early, and sometimes strained beyond repair. This year, with time running out and candidates already on the ground, the question is no longer just who will win — it is whether those hoping to win together can avoid losing separately.