The campaign for the coming Kerala Assembly elections, launched on a development plank, has run into controversy after all three major parties – the CPI(M), Congress and BJP – accused their rivals of having a tacit understanding with each other.
Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan, spearheading the Congress campaign, has alleged an understanding between the CPI(M) and the BJP to ensure mutual advantage in several constituencies. “(Chief Minister) Pinarayi Vijayan should not be provoked when the (United Democratic Front) UDF raises this issue. In 1977, he won with RSS’s backing. The UDF will expose this CPI(M)-BJP deal in this election,” he said.
Vijayan has rejected the charge and countered that it is the Congress that has had tacit understandings with the BJP in the past. “Is the allegation of a deal in Palakkad being raised merely because the (Left Democratic Front) LDF candidate is a Muslim? It is the Congress that has maintained a nexus with the BJP in multiple elections,” he said.
While both the CPI(M) and the Congress have accused each other of links with the BJP in previous elections, the BJP factor has assumed greater significance this time for two key reasons. First, the BJP has high stakes in constituencies such as Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, Kazhakkoottam, Chathannur, Palakkad and Manjeswaram. In the first three seats, the BJP secured a clear lead in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In several other constituencies, the NDA vote share has become a decisive factor in determining the fortunes of both the ruling LDF and the UDF, led by the Congress.
Second, after its recent victory in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal election, the BJP is under pressure to translate that momentum into Assembly gains.
The Congress has targeted the CPI(M) for fielding a hotelier from the Muslim community as an Independent in Palakkad, a constituency where the BJP consistently finished runners-up in recent Assembly elections. The BJP has fielded Sobha Surendran, a prominent face known for significantly boosting the party’s vote share in constituencies she contests while Congress, which currently holds the seat, has nominated actor Ramesh Pisharody.
The BJP, meanwhile, faces criticism over the allocation of several key seats — many sensitive to Hindu vote consolidation — to its allies, primarily the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) and Twenty20, an apolitical outfit backed by garment major Kitex that recently joined the NDA fold.
BJP’s Twenty20 fix
Twenty20, whose influence is largely confined to a few panchayats in the Kunnathunadu Assembly constituency, has been allotted 19 seats. These include Tripunithura — one of the two municipalities in Kerala governed by the BJP — the temple town of Kodungallur, and the Ranni constituency, which includes the Sabarimala shrine. In both Kodungallur and Ranni, currently represented by the LDF, Twenty20 has fielded Christian candidates.
The seat-sharing has also triggered unease within the BJP. State vice-president B Gopalakrishnan, who had been active in Kodungallur and was seen as an aspirant, was shifted to Guruvayur after the seat was allocated to Twenty20. The BJP has also ceded to Twenty20 several constituencies where the latter has little organisational presence.
Adding to the discomfort, Twenty20’s candidate in Ranni, Thomas K Samuel, has said he will not speak on the Sabarimala issue, a key plank in the BJP’s campaign centred on “protection of faith”. The Konni seat, where senior BJP leader K Surendran significantly expanded the party’s vote base in the aftermath of the Sabarimala controversy, has been allotted to the BDJS, which is contesting 23 seats across the state. The Twenty20 is contesting 19 of the state’s 140.
“Our workers are shocked and dejected. We had begun preparations much earlier, but handing over the seat to Twenty20 has demoralised us,” said a local BJP worker in Kodungallur.
BJP’s response
Responding to the controversy, BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar said both the Congress and the CPI(M) were attempting to polarise voters. “People understand that the Congress and the CPI(M) are not two but one. Both are trying to consolidate Muslim votes. These allegations are being raised only to mislead voters,” he said.
The BJP’s alliance dynamics also draw attention to its performance in the 2021 Assembly elections. The BDJS had then contested 21 seats as part of the NDA. In many of these constituencies, the CPI(M) either won or improved its vote share compared to 2016. The sharp decline in the BDJS vote share was seen as a major factor behind the NDA’s poor showing.
The BDJS is the political arm of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, which represents the backward Hindu Ezhava community that has been traditionally seen as part of the Left’s support base. At the grassroots level, the BDJS often relies on local Yogam leaders, many of whom are perceived to have Left-leaning affiliations. This has posed a structural challenge for the BJP in translating its alliance with the BDJS into tangible electoral gains.
