The battle for Bengal has heated up with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) vying for its fourth straight term even as the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to wrest the state. The polls are an acid test for the Congress and the Left as both parties will look to open their account after failing to do so in 2021.
For other outfits such as former TMC leader Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), which has allied with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, the polls present a chance to expand its footprint beyond Bhangar even as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) linked to the Furfura Sharif dargah looks to make a mark.
Though the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC appears to have an edge, all parties in the fray have their task cut out. Here is a look at the key factors in different regions of the state that are likely to influence the outcome of the polls.
What is key in BJP stronghold of North Bengal?
The region, comprising the districts of Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and Dakshin Dinajpur is key for both the BJP and the TMC.
The BJP is seen to be stronger in the region but the TMC has put all its might in denting it. In Darjeeling, the TMC has left three seats — Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong — to its ally Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha led by Anit Thapa.
In 2021, while the BJP swept all five seats in Alipurduar, it won seven of the nine seats in Cooch Behar. In Jalpaiguri, the BJP won four of the seven seats and five of the six seats in the Hills, including Siliguri and Darjeeling Town, while Kalimpong went to an Independent.
The TMC, however, had an upper hand in the Muslim-dominated districts of Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, where it won seven of the nine seats. Though the TMC won eight of the 12 seats in Malda in 2021, the party trailed in all Assembly segments in the two Lok Sabha seats of the district. Dakshin Dinajpur’s six seats were evenly split at three each between the two parties.
The outcome in the region will hinge on the voting pattern of the Rajbongshi community, which makes up 18% of the 21.46 million SC population in Bengal and is seen to be a traditional support base of the BJP. The TMC will also look to dent the BJP in the tea belt, where the latter was once strong.
Will Kurmis be the key in Jangalmahal?
The tribal belt, comprising the districts of Purulia, Bankura, Paschim Medinipur and Jhargram, was once seen to be the BJP’s bastion. However, in 2021, the TMC reclaimed some ground here. While the BJP won six of the nine seats in Purulia, and eight of the 12 seats in Bankura, it lost all four seats in Jhargram to the TMC.
The voting pattern of the Kurmi community, which numbers around 50 lakh and is demanding Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, will influence the outcome in this region to a large extent.
How big a factor are Matuas?
A large number of seats in Nadia and North 24 Parganas are dominated by the Matua community, most of whom are originally from Bangladesh. The community has been firmly behind the BJP since 2019 due to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) that enabled many members to avail citizenship.
However, the recent Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls saw a significant number of Matuas being removed from voter lists. The TMC has pinned the blame for the deletions on the Election Commission and the BJP and is looking to reach out to the community.
In 2021, the BJP performed well in Matua-dominated seats across the two districts. However, the TMC saw a strong performance in the 2024 bypolls, wresting Bagdah and Ranaghat Dakshin from the BJP. This time, the BJP’s Matua leadership also appears to be fractured, with Union Minister Shantanu Thakur at odds with his brother and BJP MLA Subrata Thakur.
Why is SIR key in Muslim-dominated seats?
The Muslim-dominated districts of Murshidabad, Malda and parts of Uttar Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, Purba Bardhaman, and Howrah were most affected by the SIR.
The TMC, in 2021, won all the Muslim-dominated seats in these districts, barring Bhangar in South 24 Parganas, which was won by ISF leader Naushad Siddiqui. The TMC is hoping that Banerjee’s vocal criticism of the SIR will help the party in these seats.
The AJUP in alliance with the AIMIM and the ISF in alliance with the CPI(M) may also be a factor in some Muslim-dominated seats. The BJP, meanwhile, is banking on a split in the Muslim vote.
Does the BJP have a plan for TMC strongholds?
Urban areas adjacent to Kolkata and Howrah, parts of South and North 24 Parganas, and areas falling in the “Rarh Bangla” region — such as Purba Bardhaman, Birbhum, Hoogly as well as the industrial belt of Paschim Bardhaman — are seen to be TMC strongholds. In 2024, the TMC won all 20 Lok Sabha seats encompassing these areas while in 2021, the party won over 100 of the 140 Assembly seats.
The BJP is hoping to make inroads into some of these seats, including by reaching out to non-Bangla speaking people. “Incidents such as the R G Kar rape and murder and atrocities faced by Hindu in Bangladesh will help us mobilise voters. We hope this will help us defeat the TMC. If voters are allowed to vote freely, the TMC will not win. This time even Muslims are not happy with the TMC,” claimed a BJP leader.
