On May 4, 2024, Sharad Pawar was campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections in Satara in western Maharashtra, when I asked to see him. He suggested that I could meet him after the rally that he would address for NCP(SP) candidate Shashikant Shinde there.
What Pawar told me that night went viral. Suggesting a possible reshaping of Opposition politics after the 2024 elections, he said that in the next couple of years regional parties will move closer to the Congress and some may even merge with it.
When asked what his own party would do, Pawar replied: “I don’t see any difference between the Congress and us…ideologically we belong to the Gandhi, Nehru line of thinking.”
In the months that followed, there was said to be no response from the Congress leadership to his overtures.
A year before the Lok Sabha polls too, the Congress and other Opposition parties had appeared to have missed the bus. In June 2023, Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, who was then with the Mahagathbandhan, had taken the initiative to form the INDIA bloc. The Opposition alliance had held three successive meetings over the next few months – in Patna, Bengaluru and Mumbai.
There are many who believe that had Nitish been appointed the INDIA bloc’s national convener – which might have been seen as the Opposition’s prime ministerial face – he would not have left the grouping in January 2024. In such a scenario, the Mahagathbandhan led by Nitish and Lalu Prasad would have remained intact and possibly yielded a sizeable number of the Lok Sabha seats in Bihar that could have queered the BJP’s pitch. But these are ifs and buts of history which would only tantalise political experts.
Pawar’s new RS stint
A key question is, what role the 85-year-old Pawar is going to play as he enters the Rajya Sabha for his third term now? Would it mark the end of road for him with options fast running out for him?
Several months ago, he had himself declared his intention to retire from active politics. But then political leaders often make such claims that they later retract depending on the evolving situation.
He was also on the verge of retirement in 2019, but bounced back. Then too, in October 2019, an image of him, also from Satara, had gone viral. This was a shot of a drenched Pawar continuing to address a poll rally in pouring rain – the quintessential mass leader who would not give up. It won him public sympathy and votes for the then undivided NCP in the Assembly elections.
What followed is history. He was instrumental in the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in November 2019 soon after the state elections
to keep the BJP out of power. He brought together the ideologically opposed Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led undivided Shiv Sena which snapped its bonds with the BJP.
After a brief turmoil (during which his nephew and NCP leader Ajit Pawar joined hands with BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis to take oath at a dawn ceremony in Raj Bhavan before returning “home”) which Pawar tackled skillfully, the MVA formed the government under Uddhav’s chief ministership.
Cut to March 2026. Pawar’s “unopposed” election to the Upper House assumes significance because it could boost the morale of his NCP(SP) when it is down and out. Interestingly, his candidature was not challenged by the BJP, which managed to get the Opposition’s nominees defeated in the Rajya Sabha polls in Bihar and Odisha through abstentions and cross-voting.
In July 2023, Pawar had lost out to Ajit Pawar when he split the NCP, walking away with a larger group of legislators and leaders to join the Mahayuti government as the Deputy CM.
In the November 2024 Assembly polls, the Mahayuti returned to power by a landslide, routing the MVA. In recent months, there have been talks of a possible merger between the two NCP factions, which came to an abrupt halt after Ajit’s untimely death in an air crash on January 28 this year.
Ajit’s colleagues upstaged Pawar by getting his wife Sunetra sworn in as the Deputy CM three days after his demise. Soon afterwards, she was also chosen as the NCP president.
MVA rumblings
The “merger” talks, which had been underway with Ajit, were acknowledged more by the NCP(SP) than by the NCP. It was an open secret that the NCP(SP) was considering a merger with the Ajit group, which was not keen to sever its links with the NDA or the BJP-led Mahayuti government.
That is why Pawar’s Rajya Sabha nomination by the MVA, of which the NC(SP) is the smallest constituent, took many by surprise. His candidature was initially opposed by the Sena (UBT), which had concerns
about his party’s future moves towards the NDA. However, despite their apprehensions, both the Congress and the Sena (UBT) eventually decided to nominate Pawar. They may have done it to avoid a split in the MVA ranks, also sensing that but for Pawar, the BJP would not back any other Opposition candidate, which could lead to the MVA drawing a blank.
By not opposing Pawar, the BJP sought to make a goodwill gesture to the patriarch of Maharashtra politics. But the party may also view his eight Lok Sabha MPs as a “reserve” force which might come in handy if push ever comes to shove. After all, the BJP dispensation is grappling with a difficult geopolitical situation amid the raging West Asia war, whose ripple effects have already triggered a fuel crisis in the country. An olive branch held out to Pawar could also help the BJP keep its ally NCP in check.
Pawar play
Pawar is going to take oath as a Rajya Sabha MP along with his grand-nephew Parth Pawar, the son of Ajit Pawar, who represents the third generation of the political family.
Unlike 2019, Pawar now may not be seen as formidable a Maratha stalwart as earlier, given his age and health issues. He may also not be able to reclaim the leadership of an undivided NCP or charge the MVA with new energy, even though there has been a leadership vacuum among the Maratha community which accounts for about 35% of Maharashtra’s population.
Among the tallest Opposition leaders with a connect to the grassroots, Pawar’s USP remains his vast experience and his cross-party relations across the spectrum.
So, could Pawar still play the role of a catalyst to ensure a cohesive Opposition force that could take on the Modi-led BJP effectively?
If the Congress continues to be unresponsive, as it was to Pawar’s 2024 overtures, regional parties could consider forming a “federal front” over their plank against growing centralisation of the polity. It could lead to a larger Opposition unity as and when it becomes necessary. And perhaps no one is better placed than Pawar to undertake this venture, more so as a re-elected Rajya Sabha member.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)