With the Election Commission (EC) announcing the schedule for Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry on Sunday, the BJP’s immediate priorities are clear: retain Assam, win Bengal or at the very least improve its position in the state, and expand its footprint in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Among the five states, only Assam lies firmly within the BJP’s current electoral comfort zone. In the other states, particularly Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the party has historically struggled to make a significant impact. The Election Commission on Sunday announced the Assembly election dates, saying polling will be held in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry on April 9; in Tamil Nadu on April 23; and in West Bengal on April 23 and April 29. Votes will be counted on May 4.
Key battleground Assam
The BJP’s foremost objective will be to retain Assam, where it has been in power since 2016. The party’s long-standing political plank — opposition to illegal immigration from Bangladesh — has resonated with sections of Assamese Hindus concerned about perceived economic and cultural pressures linked to migration.
A key electoral variable will be the voting pattern of Bengali-speaking Muslims. If their votes split between the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, it could benefit the BJP by fragmenting the anti-BJP vote. In the Lok Sabha elections, however, the Muslim vote consolidated largely behind the Congress, helping Rakibul Hussain win by more than 10 lakh votes.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has adopted an aggressive Hindutva stance during his tenure. Recently, the Assam BJP deleted an AI-generated video of Sarma targeting Muslims with a gun after widespread criticism.
Muslims constitute about 34% of Assam’s population, according to the 2011 Census. If Muslim voters consolidate behind the Congress, the contest could become significantly tighter.
Crucial but difficult Bengal
In West Bengal, the BJP hopes to build on the gains it made over the past decade. However, the party has not been able to convert its rise into an Assembly victory and has seen a gradual slide since its impressive performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is seeking its fourth straight term, has faced controversies such as the RG Kar hospital rape case in Kolkata and the Sheikh Shahjahan episode. Yet, two factors continue to work in Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s favour: the perception that the BJP is still not a “Bengali” party and the popularity of welfare schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar, which provides cash transfers to rural women.
Demography also poses a challenge for the BJP, with Muslims constituting about 27% of West Bengal’s population.
Still, the BJP’s rise in the state has been remarkable. In the 2011 Assembly elections, the party secured just 4% of the vote and won no seats. It has now emerged as the principal challenger to the TMC, though the party would be wary of any electoral slide.
Structural hurdles in Kerala
Kerala remains a difficult terrain for the BJP, though the party has recently shown some signs of progress.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, actor Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur seat for the BJP — widely seen as the cultural capital of the state. Subsequently, the party performed strongly in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation elections, even managing to secure the mayor’s post in the state capital.
Despite these gains, the BJP faces structural challenges in Kerala. The combined Muslim and Christian population of the state is about 45%, making Hindu consolidation insufficient on its own for the party to significantly expand its electoral base.
The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has also made efforts to appeal to Hindu voters. At the Global Ayyappa Sangamam last year, a minister even read out a message from Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath — an unusual gesture that drew criticism from the state BJP and Sangh Parivar, which questioned the government’s political motives over the event.
Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has struggled to establish an independent political base. The legacy of the Dravidian movement continues to shape the state’s politics, and the BJP is often portrayed by its rivals as a “northern” party.
The party’s support base remains limited, largely among Tamil Brahmins, who constitute roughly 1-3% of the population. The BJP relies heavily on its ally AIADMK, which itself has weakened since the death of former CM J Jayalalithaa.
The ruling DMK has also sought to frame the BJP as promoting Hindi imposition, reinforcing a long-standing political fault line in Tamil Nadu.
Limited stakes in Puducherry
Puducherry, where the BJP won six seats in the previous Assembly elections, will also go to the polls. However, as a Union Territory with a legislature, the political implications of the result are relatively limited for the party.
What the BJP expects
Among the four states and one Union Territory, the BJP leadership appears most confident about Assam. Party leaders point to Sarma’s governance record, welfare schemes, infrastructure development and a strong law-and-order narrative.
At the same time, polarisation has remained a central element of the BJP’s political strategy in the state, with Sarma often invoking religious, ethnic and sub-regional identities, particularly the anxieties among indigenous Assamese communities regarding Bengali-origin Muslims.
West Bengal remains the BJP’s most coveted political prize among the five states. Ideologically and strategically, the party sees Bengal as a key frontier.
Addressing a rally in the state last month, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that although the BJP and its NDA allies were in power in 21 states and Union Territories, that was “not enough”. “There will be a smile on the faces of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party workers when there is a BJP government in Bengal,” he said.
Yet BJP leaders privately acknowledge that Bengal remains the toughest battle.
With the Left and the Congress significantly weakened in the state, the election is expected to be a largely bipolar contest between the BJP and the TMC. Mamata Banerjee enters the race with the advantage of strong welfare programmes and a consolidated minority support base.
However, sources said economic concerns, rising LPG prices and the ripple effects of the West Asia conflict and unresolved international trade negotiations could also influence voter sentiment.
Anti-incumbency
The Assembly polls also come at a challenging moment for the BJP nationally. The Modi government will complete two years of its third term in May, and party leaders admit that anti-incumbency pressures could become a factor.
The BJP is seeking to frame the election around issues such as alleged corruption in the TMC government, anti-incumbency and the possibility of Hindu consolidation across Bengal.
The political contest has already intensified, with both sides invoking identity and cultural narratives. While the TMC positions itself as the defender of Bengali regional pride against “outsiders”, the BJP is attempting to fuse Hindutva with Bengali cultural symbols in an effort to mobilise a broader Bengali Hindu identity.