Having lost four of the six state elections to the BJP since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Opposition is bracing for a fresh electoral battle and this round is rather make or break for the largest among them, the Congress, and critical as well for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the DMK, the third and fourth largest parties in the Opposition bloc in Parliament.
Assam, Kerala and Puducherry will see polls on April 9 in a single phase while Tamil Nadu will vote on April 23 in a single phase. West Bengal will see a two-phased election on April 23 and April 29. Results for all states will be announced on May 4.
Much is at stake for all three parties and the Left, which is searching for existence in West Bengal and hoping to retain its dominance in Kerala. Apart from the larger battle against the BJP, the Opposition parties will be up against each other in Bengal, where the TMC, the Congress, and the Left are fighting solo, and in Kerala, where the Congress and the Left parties square up once again.
Congress
Since the Lok Sabha elections that gave the Congress some hopes of a resurgence after it bagged 99 seats (the best since 2014), the party has not been able to win a single state election. It lost to the BJP in Haryana and Delhi and, with its allies, suffered badly in Maharashtra and Bihar.
In fact, the BJP’s electoral march was stopped only twice and that too by alliances led by regional parties: the JMM in Jharkhand and the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir. The Congress played second fiddle in alliances in both states. In the four states going to the polls, the Congress has much at stake in Kerala and Assam, is a minor player in the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu, and is almost an also-ran in Bengal.
In 2021, the Left broke the state’s tradition of the incumbent government being unseated from power every five years. But the Congress-led United Democratic Front’s near sweep in the Lok Sabha polls and an unprecedented victory in the recent local body elections in Kerala have injected much hope in the party. It has given the Congress confidence that it can stop the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front from coming to power for the third straight term and create history once again. With CM hopefuls aplenty, candidate selection could be tricky.
Another big battle is in Assam, where the Congress, as in Kerala, has lost two elections in a row. This time, the battle is more uphill. The Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, which last time won 16 of the 20 seats it contested with a vote share of close to 10%, is no longer its ally. The AIUDF holds sway in Muslim-concentrated segments. The Congress high command does not appear very hopeful of the party’s chances in the only state where the party is in a direct contest with the BJP.
The Congress has so far tied up with regional outfits such as Assam Jatiya Parishad, the CPI(M), and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference. It has kept the doors open for parties such as the Raijor Dal. It will be a test for recently appointed state Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi who has been in CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s line of fire for a long time. The Congress’s hopes rest on the fact that the party garnered a vote share of close to 30% last time, although it translated to just 29 seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress tried to flex its muscles with the DMK but ended up agreeing to contest 28 seats, just three more than last time. Those close to Rahul Gandhi were keen to explore the possibilities of a tie-up with actor Vijay’s TVK. Sources in the Congress say the party’s internal surveys show that the TVK is likely to get around 20% of the votes. The state Congress and the party’s national president, Mallikarjun Kharge, were strongly in favour of continuing the alliance with the DMK.
In Bengal, the Congress is entering the field alone this time. It drew a blank last time and its vote share last time was a mere 3%. Even the Congress high command believes that the party has nothing much at stake in the state.
Trinamool Congress
The TMC swept the last three Assembly elections and is once again up against the formidable BJP machine once again. The state and its politics have undergone a churn since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP came into prominence winning 18 of the 42 seats with a 40.64% vote share. And that made the 2021 Assembly polls a high-stakes affair.
But the TMC was relentless. It defeated the BJP hands down, winning 215 of the 294 seats with a vote share of 48.02%. The BJP ended up with just 77 seats but managed a vote share of 37.97%. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections gave the TMC a booster dose and the BJP a shock as the Mamata-led party won 28 constituencies and the BJP’s tally came down from 18 to 12.
Given that backdrop, the TMC appears to be confident. It believes that the government’s welfare schemes will work the magic once again. The street fighter in Mamata Banerjee has already started a belligerent campaign against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls. The TMC believes that the state’s 30%-plus Muslim electorate will solidly back it to stop the BJP in its tracks.
With the BJP continuing with a shrill Hindutva push in the guise of the “guspaithiya (infiltrator)” rhetoric, Mamata is ready for a polarising election as she believes that a strong bipolar election will result in the anti-BJP vote consolidating in its favour instead of getting divided among her party, the Left. and the Congress. The TMC has been in campaign mode as early as six months ago, running outreach programmes and has tried to mobilise people around the SIR issue and raised the Bengali pride rhetoric.
DMK
In 2021, the DMK returned to power in Tamil Nadu after 10 years. With the main Opposition AIADMK in disarray, the DMK was sitting pretty and confident of retaining power some years ago. The DMK-led alliance, for instance, swept the last Lok Sabha polls, winning all seats.
But the political landscape has changed since then. The AIADMK has put its house in order and tried to expand the alliance by inducting the Anbumani Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) of T T V Dhinakaran. It has also sealed a deal with the BJP.
The DMK has managed to rope in former CM and AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam and, with the BJP in the AIADMK’s corner, it hopes to ride on the sentimental issue of Hindi imposition and rhetoric against the Centre.
The entry of actor Vijay in politics and his party TVK’s high-octane campaign against the DMK and the BJP has injected a sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. There are many moving parts now and many imponderables. Whose vote base will Vijay cut into? If he manages to get votes from all parties, then who will stand to gain and who will be the loser? And if he manages to divide anti-DMK votes, then will it help the M K Stalin-led party surge in a crowded three-cornered battle?
Left
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) is now virtually the Communist Party of Kerala (Marxist). The party is once again fighting for relevance and existence in Bengal, a state it ruled for 34 years and is now without an MP or MLA. The Left has decided to go alone in Bengal, unlike in recent years when it had an electoral understanding with the Congress.
But Bengal is not perhaps high on the CPM’s agenda; Kerala is. The party which created history in 2021 by breaking the cycle of incumbents being voted out is putting all its might in the southern state. The Lok Sabha elections were a disaster as the Left could win just one of the 20 seats. The recent local body polls delivered another shock. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan no longer enjoys huge popularity, but the party is still banking on him to lead the Left Front in the elections. If the Left loses Kerala, it will be history of a different kind as it will be the first time since 1977 that the country won’t have the Left in power in a state.