(Each week, Deputy Editor Liz Mathew maps the changing political landscape from New Delhi, focusing on power equations, policy moves, and shifts in alliances.)
While Nitish Kumar’s bid to shift to the Rajya Sabha, clearing the decks for ally BJP having its first-ever CM in Bihar, may lead to state politics, anchored in socialist and Mandal framework for long, veer towards Hindutva, the lead NDA player is likely to face hurdles on the road ahead.
Nitish, the 10-time CM and JD(U) president, has dominated Bihar politics for more than two decades. With his popularity, clean image, and expansive appeal across castes, communities and regions, there seems to be no clear successor to him in the BJP. As the state navigates the transition, the absence of such a stalwart would pose various challenges to the NDA, which may include the fraying of social and political coalitions that sustained its smooth run under Nitish for multiple terms.
The corruption allegations against some state BJP leaders may also dent the credibility of the party-led dispensation, giving a shot in the arm to the RJD-led Opposition. The BJP’s perceived inability to claim the space of a backward party and its struggle to build a rainbow base may further complicate its task as the party looks to emerge as the state’s dominant force.
Big shoes to fill
Senior BJP leaders admit that the “character and integrity” of Nitish has been a high point of the NDA government in the state since 2005. “Maintaining that standard is tough, especially because some of our leaders have faced serious allegations during the campaign for the November 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. Barring the last few months, Nitish Kumar has had control over bureaucracy too, thanks to his impeccable image,” said a veteran BJP leader.
Ahead of the Bihar elections, Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor had accused three senior state BJP leaders, including Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, state party chief Dilip Jaiswal and minister Mangal Pandey, of alleged irregularities or corruption in various cases. These allegations were rejected by the BJP as “unfounded and baseless”.
“Making a leader with integrity the CM is the biggest challenge for the BJP as of now. We have to do it as early as possible before anyone has second thoughts about the new arrangement,” said the leader.
Other BJP leaders say the CM should be able to control the ministers in the new Cabinet to ring-fence the image of the government. They believe that the BJP face who would replace Nitish at the helm should also be able to have a significant influence over the ministers from the NDA partners.
Caste calculus
In Bihar, the BJP has not been able to shrug off its image as a forward castes party and has struggled to build an overarching backward base. Its main rival RJD, led by Lalu Prasad, still has a traction over its social justice plank beyond its core M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) base despite its debacle in the last Assembly election.
Nitish continued to enjoy the support of a large section of non-Yadav OBC (Other Backward Class) and EBC (Extremely Backward Class) communities, which always proved to be a decisive factor in election after election. Regardless of his alliances, either with the BJP or the RJD, this remained a winning formula in the state over the last two decades. In contrast to neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the population of upper castes in Bihar, which include Brahmins, Thakurs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas, is just around 15%, who are among the BJP’s core base.
“Politics of UP cannot be replicated in Bihar due to its socialist background and the presence of RJD with its Muslim-Yadav support base. BJP has not been able to wean away Yadavs nor been able to project itself as a big backward party. It also does not have an accepted leader like Nitish Kumar,” said Ajay Singh, a political observer, while commenting on the challenges before the BJP in Bihar.
Nitish’s strong points also include his women constituency as well as a stable law and order situation in the state. Besides facing the task to match these formidable benchmarks, the new CM will also have to ensure efficient delivery of several welfare schemes launched by Nitish, which also played a key role in the NDA’s return to power.
Another significant issue before Nitish’s successor would also be the future of the liquor ban in the state. While the BJP has been keen on lifting the prohibition in view of the revenue loss, the party leadership would have to bring the JD(U) on board, given that the measure has been close to Nitish’s heart.
Currently, the NDA’s social math involves the BJP’s upper caste vote bank, JD-U’s Kurmi-Koeri-EBC base, and the support among Dalits and other backwards of smaller allies such as Chirag Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). The NDA’s announcement of its five candidates for the March 16 Rajya Sabha polls in the state reflected this social engineering formula as they include Nitish Kumar (Kurmi), BJP president Nitin Nabin (Kayastha), Ram Nath Thakur (EBC), Shivesh Kumar (SC) and Upendra Kushwaha (OBC).
JD (U) roadmap
Despite being centred on Mandal politics, the JD-U does not have a leading backward face other than Nitish. The party’s top brass mainly includes upper caste leaders like its national working president Sanjay Kumar Jha (Brahmin), Rajeev Ranjan Singh or Lalan Singh (Bhumihar), and Vijay Chaudhary (Bhumihar).
If the JD(U) does not see the emergence of another strong Kurmi leader after Nitish, the community’s support for the party may take a hit. Following Nitish’s exit from state politics, the party will also face stiff challenges in its bid to remain a united, cohesive outfit.
Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar, 50, formally joined the JD(U) Sunday, which, party leaders said, set the stage for his elevation to the post of its Legislature Party leader and Deputy CM in the coming days. However, Nishant, who had stayed away from politics so far, would need a long time to emerge as a leader with political acumen and acceptability among the party’s rank and file as well as supporters.