(Each week, Deputy Editor Liz Mathew maps the changing political landscape from New Delhi, focusing on power equations, policy moves, and shifts in alliances.)
The BJP has long viewed Telangana as a potential second bastion in the South, a key element of its blueprint to expand influence across the Coromandel states. Yet, the party appears to have lost momentum, a reality underlined by the recent local body elections.
The Congress under Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, meanwhile, continues to make significant electoral gains, consolidating its position across rural and urban Telangana. The main Opposition, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), has largely held its ground, though with notable declines in urban strongholds.
For the BJP, the setbacks are compounded by persistent internal disarray. Power struggles among its top state leaders have eroded organisational cohesion, while the party’s inability to mobilise around locally critical issues has hampered its growth. The recent results have tempered earlier optimism about rapid expansion, exposing the gap between national ambitions and ground-level realities.
Revanth and Rajya Sabha test
Buoyed by impressive performances in the sarpanch and municipal elections, the Congress has now set its sights on the two Rajya Sabha seats which are scheduled to go to polls on March 16. If the local body elections strengthened Reddy — who quit the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to join the Congress in October 2017 and, within six years, took oath as CM — the Upper House contest will test his political manoeuvring.
With 64 MLAs (and two defectors from the Congress) in the 119-member Assembly, the Congress can comfortably secure one seat. For the second, it is banking on the votes of 10 MLAs facing defection charges for switching allegiance from the BRS — since the Rajya Sabha vote is not subject to a party whip. The party will also need the support of Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM’s seven MLAs, along with a few others. It also expects backing from the lone CPI legislator as well.
Although Reddy shares warm ties with Owaisi, a Lok Sabha MP, the latter is likely to insist on the Congress high command’s intervention to finalise any understanding. The BRS, which won 39 seats in the 2023 Assembly elections, is now down to 37. The BJP has eight MLAs.
Congress-backed candidates won over 60% of sarpanch posts in December. The party has since secured absolute majorities in more than 90 of 116 municipalities and four of seven corporations, with over 45% vote share in most. Reddy outmanoeuvred rivals by striking deals with the Left in Kothagudem corporation and with the AIMIM in Nizamabad, keeping both the BRS and the BJP out of power.
He has also quelled dissent within his party, neutralising internal challengers and consolidating authority over both organisation and government. As one political observer put it, “Revanth is ruthlessly political. He steps on toes, but no one can complain. He has earned stature and popularity with hard work and the right moves over the last two years.”
Yet, electoral success brings its own burden. “He has fulfilled most welfare promises. Now the focus must shift to governance, development and job creation,” said a party source.
BRS and the KCR factor
For the BRS, the municipal results have offered limited relief. Though it lost control of nearly 90% of urban bodies it once dominated, it emerged as the single-largest party in almost a dozen municipalities. It failed, however, to win any municipal corporation.
There is renewed chatter about bringing K Chandrasekhar Rao, or KCR, back to the forefront. A two-term CM who dominated Telangana politics for two decades, KCR has maintained a low profile since the 2023 debacle, largely due to health issues. “If KCR returns in good health, the BRS can stage a spectacular comeback. A KTR versus Revanth narrative may not work as effectively,” said a party insider.
KCR is expected to launch a campaign targeting Reddy’s governance to revive the party. But legal troubles loom. He was recently questioned for over four hours in connection with the alleged illegal phone tapping case under investigation by a Special Investigation Team (SIT).
Complicating matters further, KCR’s daughter K Kavitha has quit the party after differences with her brother and senior leaders and is likely to float her new political outfit. A former Lok Sabha MP from Nizamabad, she still has ground to cover before emerging as a statewide force.
BJP’s southern conundrum
In the BJP, some leaders, including MPs, attribute the underwhelming performance to factional rivalry among Union Ministers G Kishan Reddy and Bandi Sanjay Kumar, and Lok Sabha MP Etala Rajender. “There is no cohesive push to expand beyond towns into agrarian Telangana. How much does a farmer in a village know about the BJP?” said a source.
N Ramchander Rao, appointed state president in July, has yet to assert full authority, though colleagues say he is trying. The state unit also received a rap on the knuckles from Prime Minister Narendra Modi a few months ago. In a meeting with BJP MPs from Telangana during the Winter Session of Parliament, Modi is learnt to have expressed his disappointment with the working of the state unit.
The BJP marginally improved its vote share in the municipal elections — from 13% in the Assembly polls to 15% — but failed to replicate its Lok Sabha success, where it won eight of the state’s 17 seats. It captured the mayor’s post in Karimnagar, a first for the party in the state, but fell short in Nizamabad despite emerging as the single largest party.
The broader challenge mirrors that in other southern states: the absence of a compelling regional articulation. “The south has pronounced regionalism — cultural, linguistic, economic. The BJP must be seen as engaging with these concerns. It has not done so effectively in Telangana,” a senior leader admitted.
As a ruling partner of the TDP and Pawan Kalayan-led Jana Sena government in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the BJP also faces strategic dilemmas. When it was announced that Kalyan would campaign in Telangana’s local body polls, questions arose about his stance on inter-state disputes, such as Krishna and Godavari river water sharing. On such issues, regional players such as the BRS retain a natural advantage.