With the end of one year of President’s Rule in Manipur less than a month away, the Centre is finding the path to government formation in the state increasingly fraught.
While Kuki groups have made it clear that MLAs from the community will not join a new state government without a written assurance from the Centre on separate administration materializing before the Assembly polls, the BJP is grappling with internal discord in the Imphal Valley.
The party’s central leadership is keen to form a government before February 13 — when President’s Rule completes one year — but the discord is preventing a consensus within the state unit over the choice of chief minister. On Saturday, former chief minister N Biren Singh held talks with the central BJP leadership in Delhi.
“There is a faction that is not in favour of government formation since its leader does not see himself becoming the CM. Among the rest, there is more than one claimant to the CM’s post. The central leadership is talking to all the members to build consensus. They all know what the leadership wants. We hope that eventually all the party MLAs in the Valley will fall in line,” a BJP functionary said.
Complicating matters is a sudden spurt in violence in the Valley, coinciding with renewed efforts at government formation. On January 5, an IED exploded around 5.45 am inside an abandoned house in Saiton Ngaukon village under Phougakchao Ikhai police station in Bishnupur district. As a mob gathered at the site, another bomb went off, injuring two people.
Sources in the security establishment have ruled out the involvement of Kuki groups in the explosions. “The site of the blast is deep inside the Valley, far from the buffer zones (separating the two communities). Only a local person could have planted an IED there. It appears to be mischief engineered by Valley elements to vitiate the atmosphere as talks are initiated for government formation,” an official said.
Three days later, a grenade was hurled at a fuel station, following which police apprehended two members of the Meitei insurgent group KYKL (Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup).
In the hills, Kuki groups have dug their heels in over their demand for separate administration. At a meeting of Kuki-Zo insurgent groups and MLAs from the community held in Guwahati on Tuesday, participants resolved that participation in a new popular government would require the Centre to give a written “political commitment” on a separate Union Territory for Kuki-Zo-majority areas. They underlined that the demand “must be finalised and signed before the expiration of the normal tenure of the current Legislative Assembly”, which ends in 2027.
This hardline position has put the Centre in a bind. Forming a government without Kuki MLAs would deprive it of legitimacy, but committing to separate administration before the polls is not considered feasible.
Sources said the Centre is attempting to persuade Kuki groups to soften their stance, possibly by diluting the deadline to “preferably before Assembly polls”. This, officials believe, would provide the Centre room to address Meitei concerns, to continue talks with Kuki groups, and to bring all stakeholders to the table for government formation.
“Both the United People’s Front and the Kuki National Organisation had agreed to the return of normalcy in September last year, and were positive about government formation. However, Kuki organisations appear to be wary of public backlash if they join the government without their demand for separate administration being met,” a Union Home Ministry official said.
The government would prefer to have a government in place before February 13 as extending it beyond one year “is a complicated process”, an official pointed out. Under the 44th Constitutional Amendment (1978), such an extension is permissible only if a National Emergency is in force or if the Election Commission certifies that Assembly elections cannot be held.
“If push comes to shove, that may happen. But the government would ideally like to avoid such a situation,” the official added.
