(Each week, Deputy Editor Liz Mathew maps the changing political landscape from New Delhi, focusing on power equations, policy moves, and shifts in alliances.)
In the bipolar landscape of Kerala politics that the BJP is seeking to break, a rather important and yet overlooked role is that of major community organisations representing different caste and religious interests.
And with just months to go for the Assembly elections, outfits such as the Nair Service Society and Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, the Samastha Kerala Jem-Iyyathul Ulama (AP faction) and Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, and the Christian Association and Alliance for Social Action (CAASA) are trying to play a role in state politics as caste and religious questions dominate the discourse. While these outfits have their spheres of influence, the degree to which they determine the voting choices of their members is undetermined.
Left and Hindu votes
The NSS and the SNDP are among Kerala’s most influential caste groups. Recent calls by NSS general secretary Sukumaran Nair and SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan for Hindu unity, and their support for the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), created a stir, as they came at a time when two CPI(M) leaders made comments viewed as attempts to polarise the situation along communal lines.
First, earlier this month, former state minister A K Balan alleged that if the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) returned to power, the Home Department would effectively be controlled by the Jamaat and communal violence like the one that occurred in Marad in Kozhikode in 2002 could happen again. Even as Balan faced backlash from the Congress and the Jamaat, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan came out in his party colleague’s defence.
Then, state minister Saji Cheriyan triggered a firestorm by linking the local body election results in Kasargode and Malappuram — two Muslim-dominated areas — to communal polarisation, suggesting that merely looking at the winners’ names would reveal a trend. While the CPI(M) leadership initially maintained silence, the statement drew criticism from within the party and its support base, forcing Cheriyan to retract his comments and the party to caution leaders not to make such remarks.
In recent months, there has been a quiet shift by Natesan towards the CPI(M), especially Vijayan. Natesan, who is from the backward Ezhava community, told the Varthamanam podcast of ieMalayalam last year that the CM would return to power for an unprecedented third term. This growing proximity between the CM and a leader known for targeting the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a key constituent of the UDF, has also caused discomfort between the CPI(M) and the CPI.
Natesan’s son Thushar Vellappally, whom he has assigned the task of forging Hindu unity continues to head the SNDP’s political arm Bharath Dharma Jana Sena, which is a part of the BJP-led NDA. And on Sunday, in a significant decision, the BJP-led Centre announced that Natesan would be awarded the Padma Bhushan. However, following the announcement, Sukumaran Nair on Monday said no unity was possible between the NSS and the SNDP in a “new political scenario”. Sources close to Natesan attributed Nair’s decision to “influence by Congress leaders in the state”, but did not elaborate.
For the CPI(M), the support of these caste outfits is important to consolidate the Hindu vote — Hindus constitute an estimated 55% of the population, as per the 2011 Census — as it did not get the Muslim vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections despite making the Citizenship Amendment Act a poll issue. The Christian vote, meanwhile, is expected to largely stay with the UDF. The CPI(M) also wants to prevent Ezhavas from firmly mobilising behind the BJP.
The CPI(M)’s courting of these caste groups also comes at a time when the BJP is trying to turn the Sabarimala gold scandal into an electoral issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a rally in the state last Friday that if the BJP were to be voted to power, the people behind the alleged theft would be jailed. The Left party appears vulnerable on this front since the High Court-constituted SIT’s probe has pointed fingers at the Devasom Board presided by its own leaders, with two of the Board’s former presidents already in prison. In 2019, a year after the row over a Supreme Court ruling allowing women of menstruating age to enter Sabarimala, the Vijayan government had faced a setback in the parliamentary elections because of its position on the issue. This time, it hopes to offset any damage with the support of the SNDP and the NSS.
Natesan and Nair’s perceived support for the Left could hurt the prospects of the Congress, which is facing deep divisions over the CM ambitions of various leaders. But party leaders believe they still have time to deal with this.
Muslim outfits
In the state where Muslims make up an estimated 27% of the population, the support of the Jamaat has been a contentious matter between the LDF and the UDF.
The Congress-led alliance received the Jamaat’s support in the recent local body polls, while its political wing, the Welfare Party of India (WPI), has backed the Left multiple times in the past. The WPI contested local body elections with the Left in 2015, but joined hands with the UDF in 2020 and bagged 75 seats in the recent civic polls.
While the CPI(M) has targeted the Congress for accepting the Jamaat’s support — Vijayan has alleged that the outfit’s core ideology is “fundamentally against secularism and democracy” — the presence of state minister V Abdurahiman and MLA Daleema Jojo at separate Jamaat functions provided the Congress with the ammunition to hit back.
More than its political footprint, the Jamaat plays an important role in shaping the socio-political ideas of the minority community through its television channel, newspaper, and literary publications in English and Urdu.
Another important minority community leader in Kerala is A P Aboobacker Musliyar, also known as Kanthapuram, who is an influential voice in the Sunni Muslim community. He heads the AP faction of Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama, an organisation of Sunni scholars. He is also a vocal critic of the Jamaat, accusing it of pursuing the ideological goal of creating an Islamic nation.
The Christian vote
The Christian vote — the community comprises an estimated 18% of the state population — has largely been with the UDF in past elections, while showing support for the Left in some pockets. But this time, there is another claimant, the BJP, which has been focusing on Christian outreach since the Lok Sabha elections, when it managed to win one constituency in the state.
However, in a jolt to the UDF, the Kerala Congress (Mani), a party backed by Christians and one of its long-standing constituents, recently walked into the LDF. This has raised questions about which way the Christian vote will swing.
In recent years, the Christian Association and Alliance for Social Action, or CAASA, which claims to have the support of 17 Christian denominations, has also come to the fore. The outfit, which its critics accuse of leaning towards the RSS and the BJP, has often shared anti-Muslim sentiments with Hindu outfits. However, the recent local body elections did not indicate that the CAASA had any impact. Amid all this, the entry into the NDA of garment major KITEX’s party Twenty20, led by the company’s managing director Sabu M Jacob, is being viewed by some as the BJP’s attempt to win over a section of Christians.