(Each week, Deputy Editor Liz Mathew maps the changing political landscape from New Delhi, focusing on power equations, policy moves, and shifts in alliances.)
“Portraying something as a true threat before a population even if it does not directly threaten them has always been a political strategy in electoral politics … And so we are concerned here not so much with the almost natural phenomenon of identifying an enemy who is threatening us, but with the process of producing and demonizing the enemy,” Italian philosopher Umberto Eco wrote in his essay, Inventing the Enemy.
In poll-bound Assam, where religious, ethnic, and sub-regional differences have been part of the socio-political fabric, the fear in indigenous Assamese about Bengali-origin Muslims — pejoratively referred to as Miyas — is at the centre of the discourse this time, too. Despite his decent governance record and popularity, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma tends to play up the “Miya” factor — he recently drew backlash for calling on the public to “trouble Miyas” — to consolidate his support base.
The Congress, meanwhile, remains a divided house and is viewed as reacting more to Sarma’s narrative instead of projecting a formidable alternative. Its attempts to level corruption accusations against the CM have also not stuck, with Sarma effectively hitting back by alleging links between a Pakistan-based NGO and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi’s wife Elizabeth Colburn Gogoi.
The Sarma puzzle
A major arsenal in Sarma’s armoury is his government’s many welfare policies and track record when it comes to infrastructure projects and other development activities. On New Year’s Day, the CM announced a scheme for undergraduate and postgraduate male students — Babu Asoni — and a Bihu gift of Rs 8,000 for the 37 lakh women who are beneficiaries of its Orunodoi scheme. Apart from these are numerous other schemes for girl students (Nijut Moina), women entrepreneurs (Mukhya Mantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan), and graduates (Jibon Prerona).
An Opposition leader alleged that the ongoing Special Revision of electoral rolls and the 2023 delimitation exercise had “ensured the polarisation and consolidation of the BJP’s support base”.
“What was done in Assam was the ghettoisation of the Muslims to take political advantage of the fear among the indigenous communities against Bangladeshi-origin Muslims, which set the fire during the Assam agitation between 1979 and 1985. The BJP and the RSS supported the movement. The process led to the concentration of Muslims in certain constituencies,” said an Opposition MP.
Last week, Congress and five other parties submitted a memorandum to the state Chief Electoral Officer, alleging that fake objections were being filed to remove genuine voters from the draft rolls.
All this, coupled with Sarma’s popularity, gives the BJP the edge in its quest to return to power in Assam for the third straight term. “His connection with people is amazing. There is genuine affection for him among the people. He has developed this image as a ‘Mama’, or uncle, to everyone,” said film-maker and former journalist Utpal Borpujari.
However, what has puzzled many is the need for Sarma to set a divisive tone before the election campaign well and truly begins. “He is popular, he takes care of families through multiple welfare schemes at the grassroots, there is a visible infrastructure development with improved road connectivity, the insecurity over insurgency is no longer present, and law and order has improved. Then why should the CM talk the way he does?” said a Guwahati-based political observer.
A BJP leader in the state said Sarma’s strong words, at the surface level, could be explained by the BJP’s “style of leaving no stones unturned to ensure victory in elections” — a mix of development narrative and polarisation that is its standard template in many states. Then there could also be the weight of still feeling like an “outsider” in the party — Sarma came from the Congress — that fuels the CM’s strong rhetoric, though he has proved himself by cementing the BJP as the pre-eminent political force in the state and the North East, the leader said.
Struggling Congress
Out of power for a decade, the Congress remains a divided house. Although the leadership question has been tackled to an extent with Gogoi’s appointment as the state president, his relationship with many senior leaders in the state continues to be sour.
The divisions and the exit of several important leaders have left the Congress without clarity or direction. Last year, the party was left red-faced when two of its candidates for the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council (RHAC) elections withdrew at the last minute. A similar thing had happened before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, too, when senior legislators Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha and Basanta Das jumped ship and joined the BJP.
Congress sources said All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary in charge of Assam, Jitendra Singh Alwar, and Gogoi had developed major differences. A section of Congress leaders criticise Gogoi for not taking along everyone, but admit he has the backing of the Gandhis. Though the state Congress president — Gogoi is also the party’s Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha — is seen by many as the only leader capable of taking on Sarma, his critics in the party say that has created a “false sense of euphoria”. Then there is the matter of a lack of resources, the result of being out of power for so long.
However, a Congress leader said the party still stood a chance. “There are local faultlines in the north, south, and in the autonomous bodies. Assam is a complex society, starting from the Bangladeshi Muslims to the tea tribes, whom the British brought from different states to work in the tea gardens. Over the years, the BJP’s support among the tea tribes has come downm but Congress does not have a leader among them other than Paban Singh Ghatowar,” said the leader.
The recent clashes between the Bodo and Adivasi communities in the Bodoland Territorial Region’sKokrajhar district illustrate the growing tensions among the smaller communities bu the Congress had been unable to make use of this politically, the leader said, adding, “If these smaller communities and Muslims get consolidated and if Gogoi manages to get the Ahom community together behind the Congress, the game will change.”
Smaller parties
The smaller parties and regional outfits in both camps form the third part of the jigsaw in Assam politics. There could yet be a realignment in the run-up to the elections and the picture on this front remains incomplete.
The People’s Party Liberal and the Bodoland People’s Front, both Bodoland parties, remain in the BJP-led NDA despite intense differences, while long-term BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad is pushing for more seats. The parties in the Congress-led coalition at the moment are CPI(M), Raijor Dal, and Assam Jatiya Parishad.
The All India United Democratic Front, which enjoys the support of Bengali-origin Muslims in the Lower Assam and Barak Valley, is another key player in Assam politics. The Congress accuses the party and its leader Badruddin Ajmal of dividing minority votes, thereby benefitting the BJP.