(Each week, Deputy Editor Liz Mathew maps the changing political landscape from New Delhi, focusing on power equations, policy moves, and shifts in alliances.)
Ahead of the 2022 Uttarakhand Assembly elections, the BJP had turned to Pushkar Singh Dhami as the Chief Minister, its third change in the post in four months. When the party returned to power, it continued with Dhami, despite him losing from his own seat Khatima (he later won from Champawat in a bypoll).
However, as the countdown begins to the next Uttarakhand Assembly polls, there is a growing buzz in political circles that Dhami is under pressure, with factionalism intensifying within the BJP state unit.
The recent visit of former BJP president and Union minister J P Nadda to the state, of which he is an observer, was seen as an effort to check the rift. Nadda held a meeting of the state BJP core committee during his visit.
In recent years, there have been several examples of the BJP changing the CM in states where it is trying to retain power, including Karnataka, Tripura and Gujarat.
If he stays on, Dhami will become only the second Uttarakhand CM after N D Tiwari, of the Congress, to finish five years in the post. The hill state, which completed the silver jubilee of its formation last year, is known for its political volatility, having seen 10 CMs in its 25 years.
Sources said that Nadda’s visit followed a complaint by senior state BJP leaders, including some MPs, to the party high command that Dhami was “not taking everyone along”. Nadda stressed the need to strengthen coordination between the government and the party.
Hindutva narrative
One of the defining features of the Dhami government has been a strident Hindutva line, with Uttarakhand becoming the first state in the country to implement the Uniform Civil Code, the state tightening its “anti-conversion” law, and right-wing Hindutva outfits seen as enjoying a free reign on “love jihad, land jihad, thook (spit) jihad, even nakal (cheating) jihad”, with incidents of communal violence growing.
Dhami himself has joined in, claiming attempts to “encroach” land by “spreading hari chadar, neeli chadar or peeli chadar”. He was the first to talk of “nakal jihad” by alleging a coaching mafia was leaking exam papers in order to damage the future of youth.
While this may have helped Dhami consolidate his position within a state unit with many contenders, sources close to him say he also continues to enjoy the backing of the party central leadership.
The Indian Express spoke to Dhami about the growing restiveness within his party. He said that while there may be some criticism of his government, “no one has spoken against me personally”.
As a party and the government, Dhami said, “we are on the right track.” He added: “Inspired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Uttarakhand is becoming a leading state in the country. We have been winning almost all elections. Our laws have become a model for other states, and tourist inflow to Uttarakhand has gone up.”
Indeed, the BJP had hailed Uttarakhand’s UCC move as a template for other party-ruled states, with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat also praising it. Dhami, it was said, wanted to make Uttarakhand “a model Hindu state”. “He is building on the fame of the state as a ‘Devbhoomi (land of gods)’,” a BJP insider said.
However, there is some unease in the ranks over the rise in polarisation in a state where communal tension used to be uncommon. A state BJP leader and Dhami detractor gives the example of the Uttarakhand Minority Education Act. “It was introduced as a replacement for the Madrasa Education Board Act to improve the quality of education in madrasas. But that has now been turned into an anti-Muslim campaign, for deviating attention from governance failures.”
The recent killing of a Tripura student, Anjel Chakma, the targeting of a beauty pageant with college girls, and signalling out of Muslim shopkeepers have not gone down well with many. Recently, the Dhami government was left red in the face when a video went viral of a gym owner in Kotdwar standing up to the demand by some right-wing protesters that a neighbourhood Muslim shopkeeper change the name of his outlet.
The gym owner, who gave his name as “Mohammad” Deepak to the protesters, drew support from across the country when he lost his customers following the incident.
Notably, Dhami last week held a meeting of senior officials where a message was sent out that “no compromise on law and order” would be tolerated, and that measures should be taken to make people safe in the state.
Others in the BJP have accused the Dhami government of dropping the ball on law and order on criminals fleeing Uttar Pradesh, with many allegedly taking shelter in Uttarakhand.
In March last year, Haridwar BJP MP Trivendra Singh Rawat, a rival of Dhami who served briefly as Uttarakhand CM, raised the issue of “rampant” illegal mining in Dehradun, Haridwar, Udham Singh Nagar and Nainital, while speaking in the Lok Sabha. Soon after Rawat’s speech, the Uttarakhand Mining Secretary issued a statement denying the allegations while the state government released data showing an uptick in legal mining.
Earlier, Rawat criticised the Uttarakhand government after the state police lathicharged youths protesting against unemployment in Dehradun.
BJP leader Bishan Singh Chuphal, a six-term MLA seen as close to the Rawat camp, has accused Dhami of surrounding himself with “incompetent leaders”.
Another state BJP leader and ex-minister, Arvind Pandey, has alleged illegal mining apart from land fraud in the state. He recently questioned the administration over the handling of the suicide by a farmer in Kashipur. Pandey’s brother and other relatives faced charges of land grabbing, criminal intimidation and conspiracy following this.
The most damaging has been the Dhami government’s failure to shake off the impression of having mishandled the 2022 Ankita Bhandari murder case, in which the son of former BJP leader Vinod Arya was convicted. The state government faced a new round of protests over the issue recently.
The senior BJP leaders known to be detractors of Dhami, and claimants for the CM’s post, include Satpal Maharaj, Saurav Bahuguna, Dhan Singh Rawat and Speaker Ritu Khanduri.
But close aides of Dhami say the pushback the CM is facing from within the BJP ranks is “natural” and expected, given the ongoing “generational shift”.
Tottering Congress
As far as the Opposition goes, Dhami may have less to fear. Once the second pole in the state, the Congress has been struggling to retain its hold in Uttarakhand. While former stalwart and ex-CM Harish Rawat is virtually sidelined, the Congress has no alternative leader of equal standing.
In the 2022 elections to the 70-member state Assembly, the Congress had won 19 seats, with 37.9% vote share, as against the BJP’s 47 seats and 44.3% votes. The consensus is that the party has slid since.
Sources said the Congress leadership is trying to correct this, reaching out to the state unit to get its act together.