With the ruling Mahayuti alliance comfortably placed to sweep six of the seven Rajya Sabha seats from Maharashtra that go to polls on March 16, the remaining berth has set off negotiations and hard bargaining within the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) bloc that can bag it if it manages to cobble up the votes.
What should have been a straightforward arithmetic exercise has instead turned into a test of internal balance within MVA partners NCP (SP), Shiv Sena (UBT), and Congress. The NCP (SP) is pushing for the candidature of its chief Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena (UBT) is staking claim based on its legislative strength, and the Congress is treading cautiously amid wider political calculations. Nominations for the polls close on March 5.
In the 288-member Assembly, the BJP has 131 MLAs, Shiv Sena 57, and the NCP 40, giving the ruling alliance the strength to win six seats unopposed. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has 20 MLAs, the Congress 16, and the NCP (SP) 10. Together, the MVA crosses the winning mark for one seat, but only with cohesion. Each candidate requires 37 first-preference votes to win.
What NCP (SP) wants
Among those retiring in April are Pawar, whose daughter and Baramati MP Supriya Sule said on Wednesday that it was the wish of the party and workers to see “Pawar saheb” in the Upper House. “Our leaders Jayant Patil and Shashikant Shinde will hold talks with (Sena UBT chief) Uddhavji and the Congress leadership. If needed, I will also hold talks with the Congress leadership in Delhi. I am sure we will reach a consensus,” she said.
Within the NCP (SP), leaders indicated that formal discussions with allies would follow internal consultations. They said Pawar’s recent hospitalisation and briefly slowed political activity would not indefinitely delay the decision on his nomination.
Earlier this month, Pawar was admitted to a hospital in Pune and was discharged on Wednesday morning. He is expected to be brought to Mumbai.
Sena (UBT)’s calculations
Though Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut said Pawar’s indication of his intent to return to the Rajya Sabha requires serious consideration, party MLA Aaditya Thackeray said the seat belonged to his party “when viewed through the prism of numbers”.
“Both Sena (UBT) seats in the Upper House are politically significant. In 2020, we gave one Rajya Sabha seat to the NCP. This time the seat should come to us,” Thackeray said, adding both party MPs – Raut and Priyanka Chaturvedi – had consistently raised key issues in the House.
Labelling the Rajya Sabha polls a “fight for protecting the Constitution, against the Adanisation of the country, selling of Dharavi, and attempts to sell Mumbai and Maharashtra”, Thackeray said the Sena (UBT) had remained consistent within the INDIA bloc over the past five years. “This continuity has strengthened our claim,” he said.
Thackeray’s claims have considerably narrowed down the scope of a quiet compromise between the MVA allies. Adding another layer to the negotiations is the view of a section of the Sena (UBT) that feels party chief Uddhav Thackeray must consider entering the Rajya Sabha with his term as MLC set to expire in May.
While no formal proposal has yet been placed before allies, the suggestion underscores the Sena (UBT)’s intent to retain a decisive presence in Parliament.
Congress cautious
The Congress has chosen to move cautiously with state unit chief Harshvardhan Sapkal saying alliance partners must first clarify their political positions before a collective decision is taken.
In private, Congress leaders acknowledge concerns over a possible rapprochement between the two NCP factions. If the NCP(SP) were to realign with the NCP in the future, a Congress-backed Rajya Sabha MP shifting sides could prove politically embarrassing. This possibility has contributed to the party’s wait-and-watch approach.
Sources indicated that while the Congress may support Pawar’s candidature, it could seek accommodation in the MLC elections as part of a broader arrangement. The Rajya Sabha contest is thus intertwined with negotiations over other vacancies, turning a single seat into part of a larger political exchange.
Sapkal reiterated that the Congress would not rush into backing any candidate without clarity from allies, adding that discussions would be held at the alliance level before arriving at a final decision.
Congress group leader in the Council Satej Patil said an MVA meeting would be held next week to discuss the details.
The BJP has sought to underline the Opposition’s internal competition, with its leaders suggesting that someone within the MVA will have to yield ground.